Trade Forecasting

Unlocking Tomorrow’s Commodity Trends

In the intricate landscape of commodity trade, forecasting accurately requires more than just broad strokes. At Tradeviews, we understand the dynamics of each industry by  each country. Collectively, these build up a bigger picture of the trade story. The essence of risk lies in seen and unseen variables, often overlooked in conventional analyses.

Our approach

Our approach is refreshingly different. Rather than relying on vague metrics like GDP growth, we delve deep into the core economic needs of each country. With decades of collective expertise, our seasoned forecasters meticulously assess factors such as population dynamics, consumption patterns, and per capita demand to craft precise projections. To do this, we harness a comprehensive array of intelligence, referencing renowned forecasters in each commodity sector. This wealth of information enriches our insights, guiding our forecasts with unparalleled accuracy.

What sets our forecasting apart?

But what sets us apart is our holistic view. We model production, imports, exports, stock changes and consumption by country and commodity to fully analyse the intricate web of global trade. By gauging the dynamics of key trading relationships, we anticipate shifts in supply and demand, offering unparalleled foresight into future trends.

In the spirit of transparency to our forecasts, we publish all the stories that influence trade so you can see all the decision outcomes to our forecasts. This detailed report is delivered monthly to our customers.

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Forecasting challenges

Commodity prices often determine the acceleration or deceleration of trade flows. These fluctuations occur on a short-term basis and can cause peaks and troughs in the trade flow curve. Our forecasts are constantly updated, and confirmed volumes are recorded, ensuring that forecasts realign with fundamental shifts. Therefore, our forecasts are most valuable one month out. Any arbitrage opportunity or temporary market dynamics are in the hands of the traders. Rest assured; any short-term movement is fed back into our remaining period.

Why are forecasts useful?

They can aid decisions for either market speculation or to cover tonnage. Whether you’re making a vessel time charter decision, taking out a FFA (Freight Forecasting Agreement), or hedging a commodity position for the future, our forecasts provide invaluable insights.  Likewise, Fleet operators can optimize vessel positioning, ensuring the right number of vessels are in the correct basin at the right time. Those anticipating the growth of a country will find our forecasts indispensable. This intelligence is a valuable addition to anyone’s toolbox.

Welcome to a journey where experience shapes foresight and tomorrow’s insights become today’s advantage.

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