Project Description
We had a very good first half of the year for dry cargo trade. Even better, the second quarter has outstripped the first quarter in terms of growth across every size segment. In most years this would be a very positive development. However, there are noticeable headwinds. The unwinding of operational inefficiencies and shorter voyages meant that the growth hasn’t translated into stronger freight rates. There was a lot of restocking in the first half of the year too as commodity prices were at multi year lows therefore the second half of the year maybe more challenging.
When looking at the volume growth in the first half of the year we see that iron ore and agriculture were both the clear leaders with an extra 25 million tonnes compared to the previous year. Close behind that was the bauxite with 23 million tonnes extra growth. Coal has a 5 million increase but even that is impressive considering 2023 was a very strong year.
Iron ore demand has been building throughout the year but steel exports have also been at a much higher level, with the majority coming from China. This indicates the underlying strength of the Chinese economy is faltering. Therefore our outlook for the remainder of 2024 is less optimistic even though normal second quarters are traditionally stronger.