Forecasting built from fundamentals — not curve-fitting.
We forecast dry bulk demand the hard way: commodity balances, country by country, built up from production, trade and consumption. The result is a forward view of vessel demand you can actually defend.
We go back to the commodity balance.
For every main dry bulk commodity, we build the picture from first principles — country by country, referencing production, imports, exports, stock change and consumption.
That balance is then overlaid with market intelligence from our monthly Dry Bulk Market Insights research. It's slower to build than a regression on past freight rates — but it's the difference between a forecast that explains itself and one that simply extrapolates.
Seven specialised modules. Over 100 cargo types.
Each dry bulk sector has its own demand drivers, data sources and seasonality. We model them separately — with the depth each deserves — then bring them together into a single view of vessel demand.
Steel
- Steel intensity of economies
- Iron ore & coking coal demand
- Tariffs & trade policy
Power Coal
- Thermal coal demand by source
- Coal-fired generation trends
- Gas & renewables substitution
Aluminium
- Bauxite, alumina & aluminium chain
- Per-capita consumption trends
- Supply-chain sourcing shifts
Agriculture
- Grains, oilseeds & sugar
- Crop seasons & weather
- Stock changes & export policy
Fertilisers
- Nitrogen, phosphate & potash
- Linked to agricultural demand
- Seasonal application cycles
Forest Products
- Wood, pulp, pellets & newsprint
- Long-term growth trends
- Housing & packaging demand
Construction
- Cement & clinker demand
- Construction intensity
- Infrastructure cycles
Economy
- GDP growth & population as the foundation for demand
- Minor commodities modelled on trade-growth and seasonality
We model in tonne-days, not tonne-miles.
Tonne-miles are a useful indicator, but they only partly represent real-world shipping. We calculate demand in both tonnes shipped and days at sea — capturing ballast legs and port turnarounds that distance-only models ignore.
We layer country-to-country seasonality onto both volume and duration. So when port congestion builds or a canal closes, the curve moves the way the market actually does.
Adjust the model to the market you see.
The base forecast is the result of significant modelling — but it's yours to steer. Layer in your own market view and watch the forward curve respond.
Delays
Model the impact of port congestion, weather or geopolitical mandates on available capacity — instantly.
Speed
Adjust fleet-wide speed assumptions for bunker prices and voyage economics. See how a fraction of a knot tightens or softens the market.
Canal
Account for drought restrictions or regional hostilities, and see how the added voyage days reshape the forward curve.
Forecasts are only as good as the trade data beneath them.
Our forecasts sit on 25 years of customs-based trade data, continuously refreshed. When the underlying data updates, the forecasts update with it — automatically.
- D01 Dual global perspectiveEvery cargo captured twice — arrivals (port of discharge) and departures (port of loading) — for timeliness and completeness.
- D02 A stable base of customs & AIS dataBuilt on official customs data and AIS, with a selection hierarchy — actual, mirror, derived and estimated — that always shows the most reliable figure available at the time.
- D03 Vessel-class resolutionEvery flow attributed to Capesize, Panamax, Supramax or Handysize, so demand reads through to the vessel classes you trade.
- D04 Coastline-level granularityFor larger countries, any dry bulk trade can be segregated by coastline — e.g. US East Coast, West Coast and Gulf — essential for vessel-deployment analysis.
- D05 Forecasts that refresh with the dataAs new trade data arrives, forecasts update automatically — multiple times a week — with no manual re-keying.
See the forecast against your trade routes.
A walkthrough of the forecasting platform focused on the commodities, routes and levers that matter most to your desk — and how the forward curve responds when you steer it.
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