The World Bank has released its flagship Global Economic Prospects report. It states that global growth is projected to stabilise at 2.6% this year, holding steady for the first time in three years, despite flaring geopolitical tensions and high interest rates. It is then expected to edge up to 2.7% in 2025-26 amid modest growth in trade and investment. Despite an improvement in near-term growth prospects, the outlook remains subdued by historical standards in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.
Trade growth, which came to a halt last year, is showing signs of recovery amid a pickup in goods trade. Commodity prices have come off their 2022 peaks and supply chain pressure has waned, helping to reduce global inflation. Global trade in goods and services is projected to expand by 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, still below average rates in the two decades preceding the pandemic.