Trade war concerns in early March took a back seat following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East with US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iranian retaliation extending to neighbouring Gulf states. Jumps in gas and oil prices fuelled worries that the war will trigger a new bout of inflation hitting consumers and businesses around the globe (see our commentary under Logistics News).

President Trump threatened to impose a full trade embargo on Spain on March 3 after the Spanish government refused to let the US military use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran. The German chancellor, who was visiting the White House at the time, later said that Spain could not be excluded from the trade agreement reached between the EU and US last year.

The US Treasury Secretary said on March 4 that President Trump’s new temporary global import tariff was likely to be increased from 10% to 15% sometime during the week. He added that during the 150 days this tariff applies, we will see studies from the US Trade Representative on Section 301 tariffs and stufiess from Commerce on Section 232 tariffs, both of which have withstood legal challenges. He anticipated that such actions would bring US duty rates back to their prior levels within five months.

On March 4, a federal judge of the US Court of International Trade ordered US Customs and Border Protection to initiate a tariff refund process for tariffs collected under the International Emergency Powers Act that was ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court.

A group of 24 US states filed a lawsuit on March 5 against the Trump administration challenging the legality of the 10% global import tariffs imposed following the Supreme Court ruling. The 150-day tariffs were imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, and the Democratic-led states argue that the act was meant to address short-term monetary emergencies, not routine trade deficits.

MID-MARCH

The Trump administration announced on March 12 that it was launching two trade investigations into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners and into forced labour in 60 countries, in a plan to rebuild tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. The US Trade Representative said that countries such as China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea and Mexico could face new tariffs by this summer as the US investigates unfair trade practices. Other countries mentioned in the excess-capacity probe include Taiwan, Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland and Norway.

It was reported that India is now expected to hold off signing an interim trade deal with the US following the announcement of the new US trade investigations.

On March 17, President Trump said he was postponing the planned end of March summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, adding to uncertainty over the path of ongoing trade negotiations. Earlier weekend trade talks between the two countries held in Paris were said to have been constructive with a focus on agricultural goods and rare earths.

The trade committee of the European Parliament voted on March 19 to advance legislation related to the US-EU trade deal agreed last year, despite concerns that the deal was one-sided. Approval was secured after the committee agreed to add a sunrise clause to make EU import duty reductions dependent on the US fulfilling its side of the bargain.

LATE MARCH

While the Trump administration’s attention remained focused on the Middle East war, the EU and Australia signed a free trade deal on March 24 after eight years of negotiations. The agreement removes tariffs on almost all goods and potentially gives the EU improved access to Australian critical minerals.

China retaliated in late March against the US opening two trade investigations (see above) by initiating two counter-probes into US practices which are scheduled to conclude within six months. The Chinese commerce ministry will investigate US trade practices and measure that disrupt global supply and industrial chains and hinder trade in green products. Dependent on the findings, China will take corresponding measures to defend its rights and interests.

ECONOMIC NEWS

IMF

The IMF provided a holding statement in late March noting that the Middle East war has led to disruptions to trade and economic activity, surges in energy prices and volatility in financial markets. It added that the impact on the regional and global economy will depend on the extent and duration of the conflict. The IMF also promised to provide a comprehensive assessment in its April World Economic Outlook.

OECD

The OECD updated its Economic Outlook in late March reacting to the Middle East war. On the upside, global economic growth is supported by strong momentum in technology-related investment and production, lower tariff rates than previously assumed, and carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025. On the downside, the halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure and damage of some energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers. This is raising costs, weighing on demand and adding to inflationary pressure. The OECD chose to keep its global GDP growth in 2026 at 2.9% but has trimmed its growth forecast for 2027 from 3.1% to 3.0%. There are significant variations in adjustments made to individual countries with the UK taking the biggest hit to GDP this year due to planned fiscal tightening and to its exposure to high gas prices.

G20 GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to provisional estimates, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index decreased to 3.3% in January compared with 3.6% in December. OECD energy inflation fell by 2.1 percentage points in January to minus 0.6%, its first negative value since May 2025. Such declines will be short lived given the events in the Middle East this month.

UNCTAD

UNCTAD has released a report on Strait of Hormuz disruptions and implications for global trade, noting that it one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquified gas and fertilisers. Among its observations on dry bulk trade, was that Strait trade accounts for 2.4% of total dry bulk trade. However, the OECD also noted that one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade (about 16 million tonnes) passes through the Strait, raising concerns about fertiliser access for some of the poorest countries.

WTO

The World Trade Organisation forecast that growth in world trade in goods will slow down markedly to 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 and could decelerate even more if the Middle East war continues to push energy prices higher and disrupts global transport. The WTO added that trade growth could slow to 1.4% if crude oil and LNG prices remain high throughout 2026 due to the conflict.

The WTO meeting in Cameroon broke up on March 30 after four days of ministerial talks without an agreement on a plan for trade reform. This places further pressure on the trade body that finds itself increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism. The US Trade Representative commented that the WTO will play only a limited role in global trade policy while the US will seek alternative arrangements with like-minded countries.

CHINA

China’s Premier announced at the National People’s Congress that the country’s growth target for 2026 was set at 4.5% to 5.0%, the lowest level in over 30 years.

LOGISTICS NEWS

MIDDLE EAST WAR

The commencement of US and Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February and the retaliatory attacks by Iran, including on its Gulf neighbours, has led to major disruption to ship traffic both in the Gulf and to ships transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While the war is having major impacts on energy trades and the global economy, the direct impact on the dry bulk freight market is more limited.

Tradeviews initial assessment is that dry bulk trade stemming from the Arabian Gulf accounts for approximately 3% of global dry bulk trade. Exports last year totalled 160 million tonnes, comprising mainly ores and minerals (primarily limestone and gypsum), fertilisers and processed iron ore. The loss of sulphur trade is a potential problem given that around 50% of global sulphur trade originates from the Arabian Gulf. The main destination for dry bulk exports was short-sea trade to India. Imports into the Arabian Gulf last year totalled around 130 million tonnes, mainly agricultural products, iron ore and aluminium raw materials. The initial impact of loss of trades in the dry bulk market has been partly offset by tied up vessels stranded in the Gulf. The hostilities have further reinforced incentives to route vessels via the Cape of Good Hope versus use of the Suez Canal and Red Sea adding to overall vessel demand. However, Tradeviews sees the largest impact on the dry bulk market being the jump in bunker fuel prices providing an incentive to increase vessel slow steaming which, in turn, supports freight rates.

Lloyds List reported on March 5 that 250 internationally trading bulk carriers were stacked up in the Middle East due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, including ships alongside berths, at anchor or slow steaming towards the region. Most comprised vessels from the Panamax, Supramax and Large Handy sectors.

The US Development Finance Corporation has launched a government-backed $20 billion reinsurance facility to restart commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz. However, there was initially little detail over the criteria to be applied as to which vessels could access the facility. Separately, the US gave a green light to India to temporarily purchase Russian oil in transit.

The International Energy Agency declared the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to be the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

By mid-March, the continuing Middle East war was starting to raise alarm bells among shipowners and ship operators over the future availability of bunker fuel. The shipping industry was already under pressure from an effective doubling in bunker costs in Asia. Uncertainty over fuel availability is likely to impact forward ship contracting. Delays in obtaining fuel could easily build congestion around bunkering hubs.

Also in mid-March, Iran said it has established a safe shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz with transits dependent on prior approval by Iran and the receipt of payments. China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Iraq were all reported to be in direct talks with Tehran.

President Trump then gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face “obliteration” of its power supply system. Iran responded by threatening a complete and indefinite closure of the passageway as well as threatening to hit power and desalination plants around the region. The ultimatum was later extended on two occasions.

Concerns in the market were raised over the prospect of Australia and South Africa running short of diesel supplies because of the Middle East war which could disrupt mining and farming operations. China has already banned exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. This could give further short-term impetus to stock building, such as China’s recent surge in iron ore imports.

The Houthis in Yemen entered the war om March 28 with a missile attack in Israel, raising the threat of renewed attacks on maritime shipping transiting through Nab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. At the same time, Iran launched attacks on Gulf aluminium plants (see out coverage under Aluminium Sector Developments). This resulted in aluminium prices surging to near four-year highs.

PANAMA CANAL

As we have previously reported, Panama’s Supreme Court has ruled that some key port concession contracts held by Hong Kong’s CK Hutchinson’s local subsidiary, Panama Ports Company, were unconstitutional. This has effectively annulled its management of the container terminals at the entrances to the Panama Canal at Balboa and Cristobal. The Panama Maritime Authority announced at the end of January that the Danish-based Maersk Group will temporarily takeover operation of the two ports through its subsidiary APM Terminals. It later emerged that Mediterranean Shipping’s TIL port arm will manage Cristobal.

On March 10, it was reported that China’s Ministry of Transport and National Development and Reform Commission had summoned executives from Maersk and MSC for talks on shipping operations in a new twist in the dispute. The following day it was reported that COSCO Shipping has suspended its container services at Panama’s Balboa port in what could be interpreted as a Chinese retaliatory move on Panama. It then emerged that China had stepped up detentions of Panama-flag ships at Chinese ports during port state control inspections in what looks like a new retaliatory measure. Detention reports have continued to grow raising concerns that a prolonged campaign could damage the world’s second-largest ship registry.

US JONES ACT

The Trump administration in mid-March issued a 60-day temporary waiver of the Jones Act that requires goods shipped between US ports be moved on very expensive US-flagged and US-crewed vessels. The decision is seen as an attempt to control soaring domestic oil prices.

STEEL

OECD

The OECD Steel Committee met in late March and gave out a warning that the global steel excess capacity crisis deepens as Chinese exports surge. Chinese steel exports reached a record level of 131 million tonnes in 2025 and demand remains subdued, raising serious concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of the sector. China’s steel demand is expected to continue its structural decline, albeit at a slower pace compared to the estimated 6.5% drop recorded in 2025. The committee assessed that global steel excess capacity increased to 640 million tonnes in 2025, exceeding total OECD steel production by more than 200 million tonnes. At the same time, global steelmaking capacity rose for the fourth consecutive year, reaching 2.445 billion tonnes. While capacity has contracted in OECD countries, it has expanded significantly in non-OECD economies. A total of 75 new antidumping and countervailing duty investigations were initiated in 2025, but the committee noted that the effectiveness of these measures is being undermined by growing circumvention practices. They also highlighted that market-distorting subsidies in the steel sector continue to increase, particularly outside the OECD region.

WSA

The latest February 2026 crude steel production data from the World Steel Association had global output across 69 reporting countries at 141.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Chinese output for the month was estimated at 76.1 million tonnes, down 3.6% compared to a year earlier. Outside China, other major producers that recorded year-on-year decreases in February included Russia (-10.2%), Brazil (-5.7%), the EU (-3.6%) and Iran (-1.3%). Japan’s output remained flat and there were year-on-year production gains in India (+7.7%), the US (+5.8%), Turkey (+3.4%) and South Korea (+0.2%). The WSA reported Chinese crude steel output in the first two months of 2026 at 160.3 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year. India’s output over the same period totalled 28.9 million tonnes, up 9.7% year-on-year, while EU production totalled 20.1 million tonnes, down 3.1% year-on-year.

AUSTRALIA

Australian junior iron ore miner Fenix Resources warned on March 26 that diesel shortages linked to the Middle East war, combined with the approach of Tropical Cyclone Narelle temporarily closing the port of Geraldton, were impacting mining and logistics operations. Felix said diesel supply constraints were beginning to affect operations across the mining sector. The company expects disruptions to fuel deliveries from its contracted suppliers and has started scaling back non-essential mining and haulage activities. Meanwhile, Cyclone Narelle has also impacted Western Australia’s mining majors with temporary disruptions at Port Hedland, Dampier and Port Walcott.

China’s state-run iron ore buyer China Mineral Resources Group reportedly told traders in early March to buy fewer cargoes of BHP’s flagship iron ore products, widening restrictions as a months-long contract dispute dragged on. On March 12 it further escalated the dispute telling domestic steel mills and traders to stop taking delivery of Newman fines, a major product for BHP. CMRG reportedly added that BHP customers will be allowed to take delivery of cargoes over the next five working days. The fear of further restrictions looked set to force Chinese buyers to shun ordering other BHP iron ore products. However, on the following day came news that CMRG had eased the ban for one week, allowing some steel companies to take cargoes of BHP Jimblebar iron ore that had built up in Chinese port stocks.

CHINA

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China produced 160 million tonnes of crude steel in the first two months of 2026, down 3.6% on the same period last year.

Chinese iron ore imports in the first two months of 2026 climbed 10% year-on-year to 210.02 million tonnes, according to customs data. China’s iron ore stocks at receiving ports were reported to have increased to a record level of over 163 million tonnes in early March.

China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission said in early March that it would crack down on overcapacity in steel, oil refining and other heavy industries. It pledged that steelmaking capacity will be reduced in an orderly manner. It also said that China would continue to strengthen and build its secretive strategic commodity stockpiles without giving any details. Tradeviews believes that China’s policy of importing more iron ore than it is currently consuming has been an important factor in sustaining high Cape freight rates in recent months.

EU

The European steel association Eurofer has released its latest steel market outlook report noting that EU steel demand is showing signs of stabilisation after three years of contraction, but the recovery remains modest and uncertain. Apparent steel consumption in 2025 is now expected to rebound by 2.4% compared with a 0.2% decline in its previous report. Meanwhile, EU crude steel production fell to a new record low of 125.8 million tonnes in 2025, down 3% year-on-year. Apparent steel consumption in 2026 is now projected to grow by 3%, conditional on a positive evolution of the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions.

Eurofer has welcomed the publication of the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act which aims to strengthen Europe’s industrial base and accelerate the transition to low-carbon manufacturing. The legislation calls for at least 25% of steel used in public procurement and public supported schemes to meet low-carbon criteria. However, the regulation does not require the steel to be produced in the EU. Eurofer calls for a clear definition of “Made in Europe” based on steel that is melted and poured within the EU and the European Economic Area and that this be combined with low-carbon criteria. It points out that public procurement accounts for roughly 25% of total steel demand in Europe.

FRANCE

ArcelorMittal plans to restart its blast furnace No.1 at its Fos-sur-Mer works in June after finishing maintenance that was aimed at extending its operational life. The plant’s other blast furnace, No.2, was restarted in December 2025 after being damaged by a fire. The company said its decision to opt for dual blast furnace operations was due to expectations that EU protective measures on steel import restrictions and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would effectively support the domestic steel industry.

INDIA

Coal India announced plans to install eight coking coal washeries by 2030 with a combined capacity of 21.5 million tonnes/year, as part of efforts to improve domestic coking coal quality and reduce import dependence.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India has started work on the first greenfield integrated steel plant in India in 15 years at Anakapalli district in Andhra Pradesh. The initial phase of the project will include a steel capacity of 8.2 million tonnes/year for commissioning by early 2029. The entire project will eventually culminate with a steel capacity of 17.8 million tonnes/year. The plant will produce advanced value-added steel and will target both the domestic and export markets.

India’s smaller steelmakers are faced with rising costs because of the conflict in the Middle East and may resort to output cuts. Gas supplies to industries, including direct reduced iron producers, are being cut as suppliers declare force majeure. The chairman of the Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association said that the ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to a roughly 10-12% increase in coal and freight costs. There was also a mid-March report that JSW Group was facing operational disruptions due to mounting gas shortages with one unit facing a potential shutdown in coming days.

Preliminary government data indicated that India’s finished steel exports in the first 11 months of the financial from April to February rose 36.6% year-on-year to 6.02 million tonnes while imports fell 37.4% to 5.6 million tonnes. Over the same period, the country’s crude steel production increased 11.2% year-on-year to 153.61 million tonnes while its finished steel consumption rose 7.2% to 147.7 million tonnes.

IRAN

Media reports in late March indicated that US and Israeli air strikes had hit two of Iran’s largest steel companies, Khuzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel.

LIBERIA

Ivanhoe Atlantic has secured approval to use Liberian transport and logistics infrastructure to export high-grade iron ore from its Kon Kweni project in Guinea. The project site is 46 km from the northern end of Liberia’s Yekepa-Buchanan railway. During the initial phase, mining will start at 2 million tonnes/year ramping up to 5 million tonnes/year. Phase 2 is scheduled to begin in 2029 bringing capacity up to 30 million tonnes/year.

MOZAMBIQUE

India’s JSW Steel announced it will develop the Minas de Revuboe coking coal mine in Mozambique. The mine site is said to have the potential to yield 250 million tonnes of usable coking coal. The first phase of development aims to produce 2.4 million tonnes/year of prime hard coking coal over the next two and a half years.

NETHERLANDS

A group of 117 economists have warned the Dutch government not to provide billions of euros in subsidies to Tata Steel Nederland. The government has been negotiating with Tata Steel on a support package of up to 2 billion euros to help the company move to low-emission steelmaking. The economists argue that public resources could be used elsewhere more effectively, saying that the subsidies to Tata risk crowding out investments in industries that could deliver greater economic and social benefits.

NEW ZEALAND

National Green Steel’s plans to build a scrap-based electric arc furnace in Waikato has been approved under the New Zealand government’s Fast-track initiative. The project aims to produce around 200,000 tonnes/year of steel using locally sourced scrap metal.

RUSSIA

One of Russia’s major steelmakers, MMK, said it is planning to cut 10% of its management personnel and pause new investment as it is operating at 60% capacity due to weak domestic demand. Steel usage from Russia’s construction, energy, automotive and machinery manufacturing sectors is shrinking as companies put investment on hold due to high interest rates. MMK does not expect demand for steel to rebound until 2027.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa has imposed tariffs on structural steel imports from China and Thailand. Chinese imports will face a tariff of 74.98%, while Thailand’s tariff rate will be 20.32%. Provisional anti-dumping duties were imposed in 2024 at 51.81% and 9.12%, respectively.

TURKEY

The EU Commission has confirmed that countries with existing trade agreements, including the Customs Union with Turkey, will be covered under its Made in Europe requirement under its Industrial Accelerator Act (see our commentary under EU). The secretary general of the Turkish Steel Producers’ Association welcomed the decision, noting that Turkish steel already operates in line with EU production standards and technical regulations.

UNITED KINGDOM

The UK government was reported in early March to have made a proposal to pay compensation to British Steel’s Chinese owner Jingye Group to unlock the impasse over the future of the country’s second-largest steelmaker. In mid-March the UK’s National Audit Office warned that the government had spent 377 million pounds funding British Steel for nine months since it took operational control in April 2025, with no certainty about the duration of support and whether it would be repaid. The cost of the intervention was set to rise to over half a billion pounds by June.

On March 19, the UK government announced its long-term strategy for the country’s steel sector. This involves lowering its tariff-free quotas on imported steel by 60% and doubling the tariffs to 50% on imports exceeding quotas with effect from July 1, in many ways mirroring EU policy. It also said that its National Wealth Fund would provide up to 2.5 billion pounds to help financial investment in the sector with the aim that 50% of steel used in Britain is produced domestically. The UK government strategy also commits to the use of electric arc furnaces as the future of British steelmaking replacing blast furnaces.

POWER COAL

CHINA

China released it latest five-year plan including a new economic decarbonisation plan relying on its booming renewable sector to limit coal consumption and emissions. However, it did not place any overall limits on coal consumption.

GERMANY

Media reports in late March indicated that the German government was considering starting up idle hard coal-fired power plants to mitigate rising energy costs because of the war in the Middle East. The role of these reserve power plants has been to stabilise the grid in winter with operators receiving cost reimbursements but no profit while existing capacity remains unused.

INDIA

The Indian government is reportedly considering the use of an emergency clause that would force power plants that run on imported coal to maximise output ahead of the summer season. This follows on from earlier reports that India may have to rely more heavily on its coal-fired generating capacity to meet peak summer electricity demand between April and June, given disruption to gas supplies caused by the Middle East war. The leading utility NTPC has reportedly told India’s grid regulator that it will not be able to supply additional gas-fired power during the summer months.

The Indian government plans to add 97,000 MW of coal and lignite-based thermal capacity by 2034/35 to meet its anticipated power needs. A total of 38,745 MW of thermal capacity is already under construction. Contracts for a further 22,920 MW have been awarded and are waiting to start construction while additional projects totalling 24,020 MW of capacity have been identified and are in various stages of planning.

India’s Minister for Coal and Mines said that domestic coal production is expected to grow by 6-7% over the next few years to reach about 1.5 billion tonnes by fiscal 2029-30. It is also expected to continue rising thereafter reaching a peak around 2040.

INDONESIA

Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said in late March that the country will gradually ease coal production curbs. This will be carried out based on market demand and supply. If the price remains high, the production quota can be increased.

Indonesia’s statistics bureau said the country shipped 29.54 million tonnes of coal in January, down 2.87% year-on-year.

ITALY

Italy’s energy minister said in early March that he could restart some coal-fired power stations if the conflict in the Middle East were to provoke an energy crisis.

JAPAN

Japan’s industry ministry said on March 27 it will relax rules for one year to increase the use of coal-fired power plants amid risks to LNG imports. It proposes suspending the 50% cap on the capacity utilisation rate of coal-fired plants from April 1.

PHILIPPINES

The energy secretary said the Philippines will try to boost the output of its coal-fired power plants because of an energy crisis resulting from the Middle East war. The country has also received assurances from the Indonesian government that there are no restrictions on the importation of Indonesian coal.

RUSSIA

The Lavna coal export port in the Murmansk Region continues to expand with the Russian press reporting it reached 12 million tonnes/year capacity in January 2026. The Russian government has also approved the port expanding to 18 million tonnes/year by 2027. The port provides an alternative to exporting Russian coal via the Baltic.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea’s government said in mid-March that it will lift limits on coal-fired power generation capacity and raise nuclear power plant utilisation to as high as 80% as part of a response to the Middle East crisis. The government had previously capped coal-fired power at 80% of installed capacity.

At the end of March, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment said it will extend the operations if three coal-fired power plants that had been scheduled to close this year, without specifying the new closure timetable.

USA

Terra Energy Center is planning to build a 1.25 GW coal-fired power plant in Alaska, the first such plant in the US since 2013. Total costs are estimated at $3.5 billion with federal tax credits and potential Department of Energy support expected to play a key role. Hyundai Heavy Industries Power Systems was also reported to have an in-principal $1 billion agreement to provide equipment. South Korea-based private equity group Koreit is also expected to make a $500 million investment in the project. An initial phase may focus on building a 400MW supercritical coal-and biomass facility with integrated carbon capture and storage. However, the project remains in the early planning stages and will require extensive permitting, additional financing and log-term power purchasing agreements to progress.

The US Energy Information Administration said that US fossil fuel generation could rise over the next two years as surging electricity consumption from data centres tightens power supplies. The EIA noted that US electricity demand has been growing at an annual rate of 1.7% since 2020, following more than a decade of flat growth. Its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts the country’s electricity load will increase by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. Coal-fired generation is expected to continue declining but fall at a slower rate.

ALUMINIUM

IAI

The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production in February increased 0.92% year-on-year to total 5.685 million tonnes, with 60.2% produced in China. Global production in the first two months of this year totalled 12.00 million tonnes, up 1.09% year-on-year.

The IAI also reported that global metallurgical-grade alumina production in February totalled 11.110 million tonnes, up 0.3% year-on-year. Global metallurgical-grade alumina production in the first two months of 2026 totalled 23.533 million tonnes, up 1.0% year-on-year.

MIDDLE EAST WAR

The International Aluminium Association’s statistics show that Gulf Cooperation Council member states accounted for 8.3% of global primary aluminium production in 2025. This includes Aluminium Bahrain which operates the world’s largest smelter outside China and Emirates Global Aluminium. The secretary general of the Gulf Aluminium Council said in early March that Gulf aluminium companies were maintaining production of about 17,800 tonnes/day, despite the outbreak of hostilities in the region, but had begun stockpiling output. However, he also acknowledged challenges given their reliance on imported raw material supply chains. He added that some Gulf smelters hold raw material inventories sufficient for the coming months while operators in Saudi Arabia have greater flexibility due to the availability of domestic inputs.

AUSTRALIA

Rio Tinto announced on March 25 that it has reached a partnership with the Queensland and federal governments to keep the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone competitive until at least 2040. The plant has a capacity of 545,000 tonnes/year. The deal will see the two governments invest a combines AUD2 billion over 10 years as part of the Future Made in Australia initiative.

BAHRAIN

Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) declared force majeure on March 4 as it halted shipments and informed customers of expected delays. As we have previously reported, the company produced 1.62 million tonnes of aluminium in 2025. In a mid-March update, Alba said it had initiated a shutdown of three smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity.

Later in March Alba announced that it is sending aluminium for export to the Saudi port of Jeddah on the Red Sea coast while the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Alba added that it was looking at other ways to import alumina and said it has received additional supplies from Saudi Arabia’s Maaden.

On March 29 Alba confirmed that its facilities were targeted in an Iranian attack and that it was assessing the damage.

BRAZIL

The move by Aluminium Corporation of China (Chinalco) and Rio Tinto to take a controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBA) for just over $900 million is set to go ahead. Brazil’s antitrust watchdog CADE was reported to have approved the transaction without restrictions.

CHINA

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s primary aluminium production in January and February rose 3% year-on-year to 7.53 million tonnes. This was largely attributed to higher profit margins in the sector.

FRANCE

American fund AIP was reported at the start of March to have entered exclusive talks with Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) regarding the sale of Europe’s largest smelter Aluminium Dunkerque. Alba said it aimed to buy all the shares in the company while preserving staff and strengthening low-emission production. Aluminium Dunkerque produces around 300,000 tonnes/year of primary aluminium. Any deal must be approved by the French government and the European Commission. Alba also signalled that it may allow the French state to take a stake as part of the deal.

GUINEA

Guinea was reported in mid-March to be considering introducing export quotas as early as the end of the month, as global bauxite prices retreat and shipping costs climb, squeezing government revenues. The country’s mines minister subsequently confirmed that the government will cut bauxite export volumes by early April to support prices and shield smaller producers while ruling out an export ban. Clearly, such a move would have a negative impact on the Cape freight market. The Guinean government has also asked all bauxite producers to submit production plans covering the next three years. These are being considered before sector-wide curbs are finalised.

The Guinean government was reported to be close to concluding a deal with Emirates Global Aluminium to avert an arbitration case over the government seizure of EGA’s mining assets last year. Apparently, traders and alternative buyers have been exploring bauxite offtake deals linked to the seized assets, including structures that would use upfront prepayments on future shipments to help settle EGA’s claims. Late in March a government official was reported saying a deal had been done, although some technical aspects are yet to be addressed and clarified.

INDIA

India’s Hindalco was reported to have stopped production of extruded aluminium due to gas shortages resulting from the Middle East crisis. The company responded saying it made a force majeure declaration regarding a potential supply disruption.

IRELAND

Press reports suggest that the Aughinish alumina refinery in the Shannon estuary has increased sharply its shipments to Russian smelters since the start of the Ukraine war, placing it in the supply chain supporting Russia’s invasion. The refinery has been owned by Russia’s Rusal since 2006. While the EU has not placed sanctions on alumina trade, this has raised fresh questions over the EU’s ability to prevent Russian arms manufactures from using the bloc’s raw materials.

MOZAMBIQUE

As anticipated in last month’s report, South32 has placed its Mozal aluminium smelter on care and maintenance with effect from March 15 after failing to secure an affordable power supply agreement.

NEW ZEALAND

Rio Tinto is reported to be actively considering restarting its dormant fourth potline at its Tiwai Point aluminium smelter in New Zealand, as aluminium prices near all-time highs. A restart would add 30,000 tonnes to the plant’s capacity.

NIGERIA

The Nigerian government said it had signed a $1.3 billion deal with Africa Finance Corporation to build an alumina refinery capable of producing about 1 million tonnes/year.

QATAR

Norsk Hydro said on March 3 that QatarEnergy has halted production of downstream products including aluminium. This followed QatarEnergy’s announcement the day before that it has stopped production of liquified natural gas after Iranian drone attacks on its Ras Laffan complex. QatarEnergy supplies gas to Norsk Hydro’s joint venture with Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company. The Qatalum plant has a nameplate annual capacity of 648 tonnes/year of primary aluminium. Hydro added that the full shutdown was expected to be completed by the end of March and that a full restart could take 6-12 months.

In a subsequent update, Hydo said that, following confirmation from its gas supplier, it will maintain supply at reduced levels. Qatalum has decided to halt further curtailment and maintain aluminium production at around 60% capacity.

SPAIN

Alcoa reported that the ramp up of production at is San Ciprian aluminium smelter has reached 90% of its 228,000 tonnes/year capacity. Full capacity is scheduled to be achieved by mid-year. Production at the smelter was curtailed in 2021 due to high power prices and by a power outage in Spain in April last year that disrupted operations. Alcoa added that it is seeking a new long-term power contract although it is hedged through 2027. The facility’s adjacent alumina refinery faces challenges and is currently running at half capacity with a limited-service life.

UAE

Emirates Global Aluminium said in mid-March that it would route its aluminium exports and raw material imports via Oman’s port of Sohar in the next few days in response to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA had earlier acknowledged that the outbreak of war in the Middle East has caused delays to its exports of aluminium and that the company may draw down on stockpiles outside the region to meet customer demands.

EGA announced that its Al Taweelah aluminium facility in the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi had sustained damage during an Iranian missile and drone attack on March 28. In an update, the company confirmed that the damage had been significant. The smelter produced 1.6 million tonnes of aluminium in 2025.

AGRICULTURE

FAO

The FAO’s World Food Price Index for February averaged 125.3 points, up 1.1% from the revised January figure, the first rise in five months. Increases prices for cereals, meats and vegetable oils more than offset declines in dairy products and sugar. The FAO’s February Cereal Price Index increased by 1.1% to average 108.6 points but was still 3.5% below the level a year earlier. World wheat prices rose by 1.8% from January, partly due to reports of frosts and winter risks in parts of Europe and the US. There was also support from logistical disruption in Russia and continuing tensions in the Black Sea area. World maize prices remained broadly stable while barley quotations continued to firm. The FAO All Rice Price Index edged up by 0.4% in February due to sustained demand for basmati and japonica varieties. Meanwhile, the FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 86.2 points, down 4.1% from January and the lowest level since October 2020. Expectations of ample global supplies in the current season continued to exert downward pressure on prices.

The FAO revised its 2025/26 Cereal Supply and Demand Brief in early March. It marginally raised its forecast for world cereal output to 3.029 billion tonnes, up 5.6% year-on-year to a new record level. The upward revisions were mainly due to updated maize yield estimates for Paraguay putting the harvest at a record level. The FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 now stands at 501.7 million tonnes a rebound of 17.1 million tonnes or 3.5%, from the previous season.

IGC

The International Grains Council has raised its 2025/26 production forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) by 10 million tonnes to 2,470 million tonnes on upgrades for maize (including India) and wheat (including Russia and Australia). However, based on a projected reduction in harvested area and yields, 2026/27 grain output is expected to fall by 2% while trade reduces by 1 million tonnes. The global soybean output in 2025/26 is trimmed by 2 million tonnes to 426 million tonnes reflecting downgrades for Brazil and India. Production is expected to jump 3.9% in 2026/27 while trade volumes could expand by 3 million tonnes on shipment flows between South America and Asia. As for rice, world production in 2026/27 is projected to peak at 548 million tonnes in 2026/27 based on modest acreage gains and trend yields while trade is expected to grow by 1 million tonnes.

USDA

The US Department of Agriculture’s March forecasts for 2025/26 season export trade saw a modest downward correction after six consecutive upgrades, primarily due to reduced rice export prospects. Looking across all the principal commodities (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soyabeans, and soyabean meal), net changes to the 2025/26 season compared to February forecasts saw an overall export trade decrease of 0.53 million tonnes, a fall of just 0.07%. The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies and consumption but reduced trade and ending stocks. Wheat exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan were marked up by 1.5 million tonnes and 0.8 million tonnes respectively, reflecting competitive prices and strong shipments in the case of Argentina. These rises were largely offset by a 1.0 million tonne downgrade to the EU wheat export forecast plus 0.5 million tonnes reductions to Russian and Ukrainian export estimates, all due to a sluggish export pace. There were only very modest adjustments made to 2025/26 coarse grain exports. The Indian 2025/26 rice export forecast was reduced by 1.0 million tonnes largely on a slower-than-expected pace of shipments. The Thai export estimate was also trimmed by 0.2 million tonnes due to uncompetitive pricing. There were no notable changes to both 2025/26 soybean and soybean meal export assessments.

AUSTRALIA

Australia’s sugarcane producers’ association Canegrowers has urged the federal government to introduce a national E10 fuel mandate (a 10% ethanol mix) and expand national ethanol production in response to soaring fuel prices driven by the Middle East war.

Later in March the CEO of Canegrowers criticised the new Australian-EU trade deal which gives Australia an additional 35,000 tonnes/year to its raw sugar duty free quota after three years, saying these volumes are not economically meaningful.

BRAZIL

Brazil’s Agriculture Minister said the government will negotiate soybean inspection and safety requirements for Brazilian shipments to China following complaints from Beijing that some cargoes showed the presence of weed seeds. Traders were earlier reported to have said that tighter government checks were slowing soybean shipments during Brazil’s peak export season and raising costs by keeping ships waiting at ports for longer than scheduled.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab has marginally trimmed its assessment of the country’s soybean crop by 0.1% from its February estimate to a still record 177.847 million tonnes, with exports expected to be an all-time high. Total maize production was also trimmed by 0.1% from last month to 138.27 million tonnes. The current season estimate of Brazil’s soybean production is now up 3.7% year-on year while the maize crop is down 2.0% from last season.

The cost of imported diesel in Brazil has overtaken the price of biodiesel because of the Middle East war. This has given additional impetus to farm lobbies pushing government to hike the mandatory mix of biofuel with fossil fuel. The country’s sugar mills have the flexibility to make more ethanol at the expense of sugar production. The spike in diesel fuel prices is also hurting Brazilian farmers raising costs for planting corn and harvesting a record soybean crop and hauling it to export terminals.

Brazil has reportedly concluded sanitary talks with Turkey in late March to gain access to Turkish port infrastructure as an alternative route for agricultural exports to the Middle East and Central Asia without requiring transit through the Persian Gulf.

CHINA

China’s latest five-year plan aims to boost annual grain production capacity to 725 million tonnes over 2026-2030 through technology, soil protection and seed innovation rather than farmland expansion. The country remains heavily dependent on grain imports despite last year’s record grain output of 715 million tonnes.

EU

The European Commission was reported to be planning to suspend some duty-free agricultural imports for at least a year to steady prices, following complaints from domestic producers grappling with lower prices.

FRANCE

The Director General of French grain lobby Intercereales said in late March that some French farmers are planning to switch sowings from maize to sunflower, which requires less fertiliser and energy.

INDIA

The President of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India said the India’s wheat harvest is expected to rise in 2026 from a year earlier but fall short of initial estimates due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms. The federation estimated wheat production at 113.5 to 114 million tonnes in late March, below the government’s forecast of a record 120.21 million tonnes.

India’s sugar mills were reported to be locking in sugar export deals as global sugar prices rebound on expectations that the Middle East war will boost ethanol demand and as the Indian rupee slumped to a record low.

An estimated 400,000 tonnes of Indian basmati rice was reported backed up at ports and in transit following the outbreak of the Gulf war, according to the president of the All-India Rice Exporters Association. Buyers in the Middle East account for more than half of Indian export shipments of premium basmati rice.

INDONESIA

Indonesia’s President announced on March 30 that the country will go ahead with its B50 palm oil-based biodiesel programme this year, raising blending from 40% to 50%. The plan was abandoned in January over technical and funding concerns but has now been revived following energy supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war.

RUSSIA

Russian grain exports to Iran from both the Black Sea and Caspian Sea were halted following the outbreak of the Middle East war. However, it was reported on March 10 that Russian companies had resumed grain shipments to Iran via the Caspian Sea which was seen as the safest route. Russia is expanding its grain export port capacity via the Caspian Sea with a new 1.5 million tonnes/year terminal in Makhachkala that is expected to begin operations in 2028.

UAE

Dubai-based Al Khaleej Sugar said on March 5 that it was still operating normally despite the war in the Gulf. The company Imports around 1.6 million tonnes/year of raw sugar via the Strait of Hormuz and ships out around 1.3 million tonnes of refined sugar exports annually. The managing director said it can, if needed, use the ports of Fujairah, Khorfakan and Sohar, which lie outside the Strait, to import and export sugar.

UKRAINE

Ukraine’s deputy economy minister said in late March that the sharp rise in fuel and fertiliser prices due to the Middle East war are not expected to disrupt the country’s spring planting of grains and other crops.

USA

The Middle East war has resulted in a surge in grain prices that has seen US farmers taking advantage by boosting sales of maize, soybeans and wheat from storage that was put aside last season due to low prices.

By late March analysts were pointing to the Middle East war changing the planting intentions of US farmers resulting in fewer acres of maize and the lowest quantity of spring wheat planted since 1970, as rising fertiliser and fuel costs and modest grain prices adversely impact the outlook for profits. However, soybean planting is expected to jump as it requires proportionally less fertiliser.

On March 27, the US Environmental Protection Agency set new biofuel quotas requiring oil companies to mix record amounts into the country’s fuel supply. The mandates cover 2026 and 2027, locking in 56.8 billion litres of maize-based ethanol to be blended in gasoline each year and requiring a more than 60% increase in soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel compared to 2025. Critics of the move argue that it diverts a disproportionate share of US food and animal feed crops towards fuel production.

FERTILISER

MIDDLE EAST WAR

Farmers around the globe are facing soaring fertiliser and fuel prices following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. This is being particularly felt in the northern hemisphere where farmers are preparing for planting campaigns. QatarEnergy has shut production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant. At the same time, Middle East sulphur supply has also been cut, sulphur being a key ingredient in phosphate fertilisers. The region’s exports of LNG have also been curtailed, impacting producers of urea dependent on such supplies. The fertiliser market was already tight due to China restricting exports this year to ensure domestic availability, controls that may well be further tightened due to the war. European producers have also cut output due to the loss of Russian gas supplies.

ANGOLA

Minbos Resources said it has secured a $16 million debt facility from the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa to advance construction of its Cabinda phosphate fertiliser project in Angola. The funding will be applied to Phase 2 construction with Phase 1 scheduled to be completed in March. The company’s website indicates plans for a fully automated processing plant producing 170,000 tonnes/year of fertiliser, with possible low Capex expansion to 350,000 tonnes/year.

AUSTRALIA

A private resources company, Mayfair Corporation, has bought the Phosphate Hill fertiliser plant in Queensland for a nominal price of $1. The plant had been facing possible closure after the previous owner, Dyno Nobel, recorded a $96 million impairment on the asset and valued the operation at zero in 2025. The plant uses sulphuric acid to process phosphate rock into fertiliser. A nearby Glencore copper smelter produces sulphur dioxide as a by-product which is converted into sulphuric acid to supply the Phosphate Hill plant.

BANGLADESH

As of early March, Bangladesh had shut four of its five fertiliser factories amid a worsening gas shortage exacerbated by the Middle East war. Production was halted by a government order aimed at conserving dwindling gas supplies.

BELARUS

The Belarus government released 250 prisoners on March 19 in a deal brokered by the US. In return, the US agreed to sanctions relief for the Belarus financial sector and the removal of all remaining US sanctions on potash companies Belaruskali, Belarusian Potash Company and Agrorozkvit.

BRAZIL

Brazil’s Agrion Fertilizantes said it was targeting production of half a million tonnes of fertilisers made from waste sugarcane by 2031.

CANADA

BHP expects the global potash market to tighten over the next decade with demand rising 2% to 3% annually with limited additional supplies beyond BHP’s Jansen potash project. The Jansen project in Saskatchewan is expected to begin operations in mid-2027, reaching 4.1 million tonnes of annual capacity within two years. A second phase would lift annual output to around 8.5 million tonnes early next decade.

CHINA

China was reported to be further clamping down on fertiliser exports in mid-March to protect its domestic market as the Middle East war reduced global supplies. There was a report that Beijing had banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertiliser blends and some phosphate products. This was on top of existing bans and export quotas for urea. China had earlier said it will release fertilisers from national commercial reserves ahead of spring planting.

EU

The European Commission resisted a request by France and other countries on Marck 30 to suspend the EU’s CO2 emission levy on imported fertiliser which the governments argued would help farmers struggling with high prices. The EU Agricultural Commissioner argued that suspending the carbon border levy would worsen the dependency on imports.

INDIA

India’s fertiliser sector has been adversely impacted by the Middle East war as it obtains more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertiliser supplies from the region. It was also reported in early March that three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output due to a drop in LNG supplies from Qatar. Later in the month, Yara International said it has reduced ammonia and urea production at its plant in Babrala due to disruptions to natural gas supplies linked to the ongoing conflict. The Indian government was also reported to be in talks with Russia, Belarus and Morocco to boost fertiliser purchases.

On March 30, a senior official of the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers said the country had adequate stocks of fertilisers and is tapping alternative sources outside the Gulf to boost supplies for summer-sown crops. Besides Russia and Morocco, India is also looking at securing fertiliser supplies from Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Jordan, Canada, Algeria, Egypt and Togo amongst others.

MALAYSIA

Fertiliser producers in Malaysia were said to be suspending new orders as supply-chain disruptions and feedstock shortages due to the Middle East war drive up raw material prices. This is threatening local palm oil plantations for which fertilisers can account for more than half of their production costs.

ROMANIA

Romanian nitrogen fertiliser producer Azomures is preparing to lay off approximately 95% of its workforce of more than 1,100 amid prolonged production shutdowns and unfavourable market conditions. Production has been largely suspended since 2021 due to soaring natural gas prices. At its peak, the company supplied up to half of domestic demand for nitrogen fertilisers.

RUSSIA

Russia announced it will halt ammonium nitrate exports for one month until April 21 to ensure sufficient supply during the spring planting season.

Russian fertiliser exporters are not expected to make up for shortages created by the Middle East war. While Russia accounts for around one-fifth of global fertiliser trade, it has limited capacity to expand output and has been further constrained by government-imposed export caps. In addition, recent Ukrainian attacks on major fertiliser plants in the country have impacted output. A Ukrainian drone attack on Dorogobuzh in late February, a large plant owned by Acron, reportedly temporarily knocked out about 5% of Russia’s overall fertiliser production capacity.

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabian phosphates producer Maaden said it aims to resume exports through the country’s west coast port of Yanbu on the Red Sea with shipments picking up in April.

TURKMENISTAN

Saipem has been awarded a licence agreement to supply urea technology to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for a new 3,500 tonnes/day fertiliser plant in Turkmenistan.

USA

US farmers, already struggling with low profits or losses, now face worries over the cost and availability of fertilisers due to the Middle East war. The Fertiliser Institute, which represents the US fertiliser supply chain, said in mid-March that the US is about 25% short of the usual supplies that farmers buy for spring planting. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department said on March 13 that it was taking immediate steps to allow for more imports of Venezuelan fertiliser.

The US Department of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation into the fertiliser industry to look at whether major producers coordinated to raise prices. Companies named in the probe include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch and Yara International.

FOREST PRODUCTS

BRAZIL

According to the International Tropical Timber Organisation, Brazilian exports of wood-based products (excluding pulp and paper) totalled US$263.2 million in January, down 17% year-on-year. Among main products, pine sawnwood export volumes rose 29% year-on-year to 271,100 cubic metres, while pine plywood export volumes fell 29% year-on-year to 138,800 cubic metres.

CANADA

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian sawmills produced 2.905 million cubic metres of lumber in December 2025, down 21% on November and down 12.8% year-on-year. Lumber shipments totalled 2.997 million cubic metres in December, down 14.2% from the previous month and down 5.9% from a year earlier.

CHINA

China imported 1.75 million cubic metres of softwood lumber in the first two months of 2026 according to customs data, down 19.2% year-on-year and the lowest volume in the last ten years. Over the same period, China imported 3.13 million cubic metres of softwood logs.

EU

The EU imported 1.609 million tonnes of tropical wood and wood furniture in 2025, up 10% on the all-time low reported in 2024. However, this included a late year surge in imports, particularly plywood and wood furniture from Viet Nam, ahead of the EU’s deforestation regulations coming into effect.

FINLAND

Metsa Fibre announced that it will shut down its Joutseno pulp mill in Finland on March 31 citing the need to adjust pulp production to match the current demand uncertainty om Asian markets. The mill has the capacity to produce 690,000 tonnes/year of softwood pulp. A restart will be dependent on how market conditions evolve.

GERMANY

The German Timber Industry Association has warned that the supply of raw timber has recently deteriorated rapidly leading to exceptionally high prices. The association has also warned against the consequences of the Restoration Ordinance for sustainable forest management which prohibits forest degradation.

UNITED KINFDOM

Timber Development UK reported that total UK timber and panel product imports in 2025 declined 2.2% year-on-year to 9.1 million cubic metres. This was the lowest annual import volume for around a decade. Total softwood imports in 2025 were 5.55 million cubic metres, down 4% on the previous year while hardwood imports remained broadly stable. However, TDUK added that softwood import volumes could rise by around 3.7% in 2026 to reach around 5.8 million cubic metres, as confidence begins to improve in the housing and construction sectors.

URUGUAY

Work on Lumin’s new plywood mill in Uruguay is progressing ahead of a planned startup in July. The $136 million facility at Melo, Cerro Largo, will have a production capacity of 164,000 cubic metres. Lumin currently produces approximately 304,000 cubic metres of plywood annually at its two plants in Tacuarembo. The new mill will make Uruguay the second-largest plywood manufacturer in Latin America.

USA

The US Department of Commerce has launched a new administrative review into imports of Canadian softwood lumber and Chinese hardwood plywood and wooden bedroom furniture. All these products are already subject to antidumping duties. The final results from the review are not expected until January 2027.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reported that the US exported 10.09 million tonnes of wood pellets in 2025, up 1.3% year-on-year. A later USDA report indicated that US wood pellet exports in January totalled 964,861 tonnes, up 15.6% from December and up 16.9% year-on-year. The UK was the top destination for January shipments, having been sent 805,760 tonnes.

The National Association of Home Builders/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reported that builder confidence for newly built single-family homes rose one point in March to 38. Sentiment has now remained in negative territory for 23 consecutive months.

CEMENT

ARGENTINA

Argentina’s cement despatches declined by 5.3% year-on-year to 0.696 million tonnes in February, according to the national cement association AFCP. Total consumption in the first two months of 2026 was 1.485 million tonnes, down 5.3% from a year earlier.

BRAZIL

The National Cement Industry Union, SNIC, reported that cement sales in Brazil in February totalled 4.881 million tonnes, down 5.0% year-on-year. Cement sales in the first two months of 2026 totalled 10.145 million tonnes, down 1.9% from a year earlier.

COLOMBIA

Colombia’s cement consumption in January rose 6.9% year-on-year to total 951,000 tonnes, according to the national statistics agency DANE. Domestic cement production during the month totalled 992,000 tonnes, up 3.1% year-on-year.

MOROCCO

Cement deliveries in Morocco totalled 1.048 million tonnes in February, a fall of 12.6% year-on-year, according to the country’s housing and planning ministry. Deliveries of cement in the first two months of 2026 totalled 2.093 million tonnes, down 15.8% from the same period a year earlier.

NIGERIA

Dangote Cement reported that it exported 970,100 tonnes of clinker to Cameroon and Ghana in 2025 via 34 vessels. This was up 7% year-on-year. The trade accounted for 69% of Nigeria’s clinker exports.

BUA Cement is planning to construct a 3 million tonnes/year greenfield cement plant in Ososo, Edo State, which is scheduled to start operations in December 2027. This is expected to be followed with a brownfield project of similar capacity in Sokoto State scheduled for commissioning in December 2028.

PAKISTAN

According to the All-Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, cement dispatches in February increased 13% year-on-year to total 4.20 million tonnes. Domestic dispatches rose 8% year-on-year to 3.47 million tonnes while cement exports jumped 38% year-on-year to 0.73 million tonnes. During the first eight months of the current fiscal year, total cement dispatches reached 34.8 million tonnes, up 11% year-on-year.

SPAIN

Spain’s cement association Oficemen is taking a cautionary outlook for this year after significant shifts in external trade. Cement exports fell 10.1% in 2025 and continued to fall by 11.4% year-on-year in January. Conversely, imports soared by nearly 39% last year, reaching their highest level since 2010. This was primarily driven by clinker purchases from Mediterranean countries that lack the EU’s decarbonisation mandates. This created an import spike ahead of EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism coming into effect at the start of this year. Oficemen noted that national cement consumption remains below 20 million tonnes/year, a threshold more consistent with the current needs of Spain’s housing and infrastructure sectors.

SWEDEN

Heidelberg Materials has announced potential plans to significantly scale down clinker production at its Skovde plant in Sweden by 2027 in response to sluggish demand from Sweden’s construction sector and to a decision to streamline its European operations. The facility currently accounts for roughly 25% of Sweden’s cement volume. While Skovde will pivot to final cement production, most of the clinker manufacturing will be consolidated at the company’s Slite plant.

USA

Total shipments of Portland and blended cement, including imports, in the US and Puerto Rico in November 2025 were an estimated 7.86 million tonnes, according to the US Geological Survey. Shipments for the year through November totalled 94.6 million tonnes, down 1.9% year-on-year. Clinker production, excluding Puerto Rico, in the first 11 months of 2025 totalled an estimated 63.2 million tonnes, down 3.4% from the same period in 2024.

VIET NAM

Sinoma Nanjing has signed a contract with MeyGroup to construct an 8,000 tonnes/day clinker production line in Hanoi. In a separate development, Tan A Dai Thanh Group has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China’s Sinoma International Engineering to develop a new cement plant in An Giang province.

Viet Nam exported 2.81 million tonnes of cement and clinker in February according to the National Statistics Office, down 7% year-on-year. However, exports in the first two months of this year totalled 6.47 million tonnes, up 24% year-on-year.

According to the Viet Nam National Cement Association, the country’s cement dispatches in January jumped 94% year-on-year to 7.309 million tonnes. Export volumes for the month were up 72% year-on-year to 3.794 million tonnes with clinker exports up 62% to 1.620 million tonnes and cement exports up 79% to 2.174 million tonnes.

OTHER INDUSTRIAL MINERAL

ICSG

The International Copper Study Group reported that preliminary data indicated that world copper mine production increased by about 2.2% year-on-year in January 2026 to 1.919 million tonnes of copper content. World primary refined copper production fell by about 1.4% over the same period to 1.980 million tonnes while world apparent refined copper usage, including secondary production, rose by 2.6% to 2.409 million tonnes. The ICSG analysis of the world’s refined copper balance indicated an apparent surplus of 17,000 tonnes in January.

IEA

The International Energy Agency said that as the world is entering an Age of Electricity, strong demand growth for copper is anticipated from a wide variety of sources, including grids, electric vehicles, construction, industry and data centres. However, despite this robust demand growth outlook, there are major challenges in increasing copper supply. Based on the current project pipeline, the IEA anticipates that the copper market could face a supply deficit of 30% by 2035.

CHILE

BHP has submitted a multibillion-dollar plan to Chile’s environmental authorities to replace its aging Los Colorados processing plant with a new concentrator capable of producing between 220,000 and 260,000 tonnes/year of copper. The project is part of BHP’s strategy for sustaining production from its Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper operation

INDONESIA

Indonesian nickel producers may be forced to cut output if an extended Gulf war cuts its access to sulphur supplies. Indonesia is reliant on the Middle East for 75% of its sulphur imports. Sulphur is used to make sulphuric acid which is essential for leaching the metal from nickel ore in the refining process. Indonesia produces around 60% of global nickel production according to the US Geological Survey.

JAPAN

Mitsubishi Materials said it will stop processing copper concentrate and operating related smelting facilities at its Onahama plant by the end of March 2027. The company said intensifying competition from overseas smelters and a sharp deterioration in treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate had made the business outlook increasingly uncertain.

PHILIPPINES

The Philippines Nickel Industry Association warned on March 26 that nickel mining operations across the country could shut down this year due to shrinking fuel supplies unless the government intervenes to protect the sector.

SOUTH AFRICA

A group of South African manganese miners with membership in the Manganese Producers Consortium plan to build and operate a new export port at Ngqura in Eastern Cape province. The group is in partnership with state-owned rail and port operator Transnet on the project, which is expected to add 16 million tonnes/year of manganese export capacity and improve logistics. South Africa is estimated to have exported about 26.2 million tonnes of manganese in 2025, according to the Minerals Council.

USA

Rio Tinto said it aims to open its Resolution Copper mine in Arizona in the early-to-mid-2030s but may need to export some of its copper concentrates due to the challenging economics of smelting in the US. Rio gained control of acreage to build what will be one of the world’s largest copper mines in March after a year-long court battle.

ZAMBIA

KoBold Metals, backed by US billionaires Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, has started development of its Mingomba copper project in Zambia targeting 300,000 tonnes/year production in the early 2030s. Zambia aims to more than triple its copper output to 3 million tonnes/year by 2031.