The IMF has released its latest World Economic Outlook noting that global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from the previous July report. However, there were some notable underlying revisions. An upgrade to US GDP offset downgrades to other advanced economies, particularly to major European countries. Disruptions to production and shipping of commodities, conflicts, civil unrest and extreme weather events have led to downward growth revisions for the Middle East, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This was compensated for by upgrades for emerging Asia. The new forecast for global growth in 2029 at 3.1% remains mediocre compared to the pre-pandemic average.

OECD

OECD headline inflation fell to 4.7% in August from 5.4% in July, driven by a 10% decline in Turkey’s inflation. Excluding Turkey, inflation in the OECD area decreased to 2.7% from 3.0% over the same period. G7 year-on-year headline inflation eased to 2.4% in August from 2.7% in July while euro area inflation declined to 2.2% from 2.6%.

UNCTAD

UNCTAD’s trade and development report 2024 projects global economic growth to stagnate at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025, down from the 3% annual average growth seen between 2011 and 2019 and well below the 4.4% average in the years before the 2008 financial crisis. Global trade in services continues to show more dynamism than merchandise trade. Looking forward, the report suggests a strong revival in world trade is unlikely with higher reliance on trade restrictions and inward focused industrial strategies, especially by the largest economies.

UNCTAD has published its latest 2024 review of maritime transport. The report forecasts maritime trade volume to expand by 2% in 2024 and containerisation trade volume by 3.5%. The equivalent forecast figures for 2025 are 2.4% and 2.7% respectively. Over the medium term out to 2029, total seaborne trade growth is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.3% per year.

WORLD BANK

The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook suggests global commodity prices are set to fall through 2026 amid an historical oil glut that is so large it is likely to limit the price effects even of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Global commodity prices are set to fall by nearly 10% from 2024 to 2026. Global food prices are set to fall 9% this year and by an additional 4% next year.

WTO

The World Trade Organisation has updated its Global Trade Outlook in October. World merchandise trade growth in 2024 was raised from 2.6% to 2.7% while growth in 2025 was lowered from 3.3% to 3.0%. Demand for traded goods was weaker than expected in Europe but stronger than foreseen in Asia. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7% in both 2024 and 2025.

The WTO expects Asian exports will grow faster than any other region this year, rising 7.4%. It will be followed by the Middle East (4.7%), South America (4.6%), the CIS (4.5%), Africa (2.5%), North America (2.1%) and Europe (-1.4%). As for imports, the fastest growing region will be the Middle East (9.0%), followed by South America (5.6%), Asia (4.3%), North America (3.3%), the CIS (1.1%), Africa (1.0%) and Europe (-2.3%).

CHINA

China’s Finance Minister said there will be more counter-cyclical measures this year without providing details of the size and timing of new stimulus measures. This followed news that China’s consumer inflation unexpectedly eased in September while producer price deflation deepened with the producer price index down 2.8% year-on-year.

EU

EU member states have voted to impose extra tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, an action that is likely to draw a retaliatory response from Beijing authorities. Following on from a European Commission anti-subsidy investigation, countervailing tariffs of up to 35.3% will be imposed on top of the existing 10% car import duty.

USA

The International Longshoremen’s Association commenced strike action on Tuesday 1 October impacting port operations along the entire US East and Gulf Coasts. The dispute was centred around rising port automation and wages which were notably below rates obtained by West Coast port workers in negotiations last year. The government could have invoked the rarely used Taft-Hartley Act to issue a back-to-work order and to impose a cooling off period, but the Biden administration was reluctant to use federal powers to break a strike with the presidential election looming. However, a wage deal was eventually reached on Thursday 3 October with ports reopening late that day. The union had agreed to suspend strike action until mid-January and to return to negotiations to deal with all outstanding issues. The disruption is expected to impact container trade the most with speculation that operations will be back to normal within two to three weeks.

STEEL

IEA

See commentary under Power Coal for the International Energy Agency’s latest projections on coking coal production published in its World Energy Outlook 2024.

WSA

The latest September 2024 crude steel production data from the World Steel Association had global output across 71 reporting countries at 143.6 million tonnes, down 4.7% year-on-year. Chinese output for the month was estimated at 77.1 million tonnes, a fall of 6.1% year-on-year. Outside China, other major producers that recorded year-on-year losses in September included Iran (-41.2%), Russia (-10.3%), Japan (-5.8%), and India (-0.2%). There were year-on-year gains in Brazil (+9.9%), Turkey (+6.5%), South Korea (+1.3%), the US (+1.2%), and the EU (+0.3%). The WSA estimated Chinese crude steel output in the first nine months of 2024 at 768.5 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year. Over the same period India’s output totalled 110.3 million tonnes, up 5.8% year-on-year, while EU production totalled 97.8 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year.

The WSA has also released an update of its Short-Range Outlook for 2024 and 2025. The forecast of global steel demand in 2024 was lowered by 0.9% to 1,751 million tonnes. However, the WSA expects a broad-based recovery in the world excluding China in 2025 with global steel demand rebounding by 1.2% to 1,772 million tonnes. The downturn in the Chinese real estate sector has led the WSA to project a 3.0% decline in the country’s steel demand in 2024 to 868.8 million tonnes and a further 1.0% fall in 2025 to 860.1 million tonnes.

AUSTRALIA

South32 has initiated a phased mining restart at its Groote Eylandt manganese operation with first production expected this quarter. The facility received significant damage from Cyclone Megan in March which resulted in a suspension of production.

BRAZIL

Vale has partnered with Green Energy Park to carry out feasibility studies on a major green hydrogen production facility as part of its Mega Hubs project. The project plans to produce low-carbon hot briquetted iron, using green hydrogen as the reducing agent, for sale to global steel companies looking to switch to low-carbon steelmaking.

Brazil’s trade body, GECEX, announced that it was doubling import tariffs on steel wires and ropes to 25% following a request from SICETEL which represents domestic producers.

CANADA

Canada has published a long list of Chinese steel and aluminium products on which it will place a 25% tariff starting on 22 October. The list includes ingots, coils. wires, bars and rods. The plan to impose tariffs was announced in August.

CHINA

The China Iron and Steel Association said that the country’s apparent steel consumption fell 6.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 to 688 million tonnes and will likely flatten or dip slightly in 2025. The drop in domestic steel demand has created oversupply which has weighed down on steel prices and hurt profitability. CISA also see mounting risks facing steel exports due to growing trade frictions. The association also noted a structural shift in China’s steel consumption, away from the protracted downturn in the property market towards a greater focus on the manufacturing sector.

According to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 104.13 million tonnes of iron ore in September, up 2.7% from August and up 2.9% from a year earlier. China also reported exports of steel totalling 10.15 million tonnes in September, the highest level since July 2016. Exports for the first nine months of this year totalled 80.71 million tonnes, up 21.2% year-on-year. The backdrop was one of subdued domestic demand exacerbated by the slump in the country’s property sector. As we have been reporting all year, the surge in Chinese steel exports has created trade tensions and moves by governments outside China to apply anti-dumping tariffs or at least instigate anti-dumping investigations.

China’s crude steel production in September totalled 77.07 million tonnes according to official data, the lowest monthly total this year. Total output for the first nine months of this year was 768.5 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year.

CZECH REPUBLIC

Jindal Steel Group is in talks to acquire a 100% stake in Czech plate rolling mill Vitkovice Steel. The latter signed a MoU back in June with Jindal’s Omani-based steelmaker Vulcan Green Steel for the future supply of 1 million tonnes/year of steel slab. VGC’s hydrogen-ready 6 million tonne/year steel plant is due to start operations in 2027. Jindal also plans to invest 150 million euros in Vitkovice’s Ostrava-based mill to expand plate production capacity and to manufacture higher-added-value products.

EU

The European steel association, Eurofer, has abandoned its expectations for a modest recovery in EU apparent steel consumption this year. In its latest outlook report, demand is now expected to shrink by 1.8% to 127 million tonnes in 2024. Demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 3.8% to 132 million tonnes, still below the pre-pandemic level of 145 million tonnes recorded in 2019.

Eurofer, along with several steel producers, have requested that the European Union implement immediate measures to address the ongoing crisis in the sector due to global steel overcapacity, high energy prices and unfair trade. They call on the EU to enhance Trade Defence Instruments with more robust tariffs, improve the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to prevent circumvention, reduce energy costs, retain scrap within the EU and establish lead markets to drive the demand for green steel in Europe.

Later in October, the European Commission announced it has started registering all hot-rolled coil imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Viet Nam, paving the way for potential retrospective application of anti-dumping duties. An investigation into this trade was launched in August.

GERMANY

Volkswagen is planning to close at least three car plants in Germany as part of cost cutting measures. VW, along with other carmakers, are struggling with high production costs, severe competition and stagnating electric vehicle demand. Until recently, German car manufacturing had been holding up. The automotive federation VDA reported that passenger car production in Germany in the first nine months of this year totalled 3.1 million units, down just 1% year-on-year.

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (TKSE) has now announced it is reviewing its plans to produce green steel at its Duisburg plant and was considering halting the project. Last month we reported that TKSE said its planned directly reduced iron and steel facility to produce carbon-free steel could be more expensive than previously thought. This ongoing saga follows on from the resignation of TKSE’s leadership at the end of August in a dispute with its parent Thyssenkrupp over how much money the steel business needs to survive on its own. In another development, TKSE has lost it court battle with the EU over its antitrust veto over a proposed joint venture with Tata Steel, following a ruling made in early October by the Court of Justice of the European Union.

Stahl-Holding-Saar Group (SHS Group), with its shareholdings in Dillinger, Saarstahl and ROGESA, has awarded construction contracts for a 2 million tonnes/year directly reduced iron plant and two electric arc furnaces for Dillinger and Saarstahl with a combined production capacity of 3.5 million tonnes/year. The DRI plant will use a mix of natural gas and hydrogen while the EAFs will also process steel scrap. Primetals Technologies, Midrex Technologies and the DSD Steel Group will undertake the construction. The shift over to low-carbon steelmaking is being supported by 2.6 billion euros in federal and state funding.

Germany’s national steel federation WV Stahl has downgraded its outlook for German steel demand, no longer seeing a recovery this year. It now expects a 7% year-on-year fall in 2024 followed by a 6% rebound in 2025.

INDIA

India’s JSW Steel was reported to have signed a preliminary agreement with South Korea’s POSCO to establish an integrated steel plant with an initial capacity of 5 million tonnes/year. The two companies are also to collaborate on providing renewable energy for the proposed steelworks.

A consortium led by Gensol Engineering and Matrix Gas and Renewables have been awarded a contract to build India’s first green hydrogen-powered steel facility. This is one of three pilot plants under the government’s National Green Hydrogen Mission and will receive 50% capital expenditure support. It will establish hydrogen-fuelled directly reduced iron technology to produce 50 tonnes/day of sponge iron from iron ore. It aims to provide a model for the country’s small and medium-sized steel producers.

INDONESIA

The Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association has warned that the influx of cheap Chinese steel could hamper the growth and profitability of domestic steel producers. Its Executive Director warned that without government intervention the national steel industry could face bankruptcy, noting that steel imports from China jumped 34% in the first half of 2024 to 2.98 million tonnes.

ITALY

Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) announced it was restarting its blast furnace no.1 on 15 October at its Taranto steelworks. The mill has been operating only its blast furnace no.4. on a limited basis. The special commissioners running ADI aim to be running blast furnaces 1, 2 and 4 by the first quarter of 2026. They are also evaluating letters of interest for the acquisition of all ADI’s assets from several parties. A later announcement said that ADI had signed a MoU with DRI d’Italia to build a 2.5 million tonnes/year direct reduced iron plant at the Taranto steelworks using state funds.

NLMK Verona is to build a new electric arc furnace to produce green steel slab, scheduled for commissioning in 2027. The company is also embarking on a project to electrify its existing 450,000 tonnes/year gas-fired furnace.

JAPAN

Japan’s steel production in September fell to 6.62 million tonnes, down 5.8% year-on-year and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The Japan Iron and Steel Federation attributed the downtrend to higher material prices, labour shortages in the construction sector and slow recovery in automobile production.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects the country’s crude steel production in the October-December quarter to fall by 1.4% year-on-year to 21.3 million tonnes due to softer automobile demand and sluggish manufacturing activity. This would mark a fourth consecutive quarterly decrease.

OMAN

Brazil’s Vale and China’s Jinnan Iron and Steel Group have announced a partnership to establish an iron ore concentration plant in the Sohar port and freezone where Vale already operates an iron ore transhipment terminal. The plant is due to come into service in mid-2027 and will process 18 million tonnes/year of Brazilian iron ore to produce 12.6 million tonne/year of high-grade concentrate suitable to feed regional directly reduced iron plants. As Tradeviews has previously reported, Vulcan Green Steel (part of the Jindal Steel Group) is building a hydrogen ready 6 million tonnes/year DRI and steel complex in Oman that is due to start up in 2027.

POLAND

Liberty Steel has submitted a lease offer for the Czestochowa steel plant in addition to appealing bankruptcy proceedings against its Polish subsidiary. Liberty said the offer includes providing immediate funds to pay outstanding bills and employees’ salaries. The plant’s 0.7 million tonnes/year EAF and 1.2 million tonnes/year plate mill remain idled.

RUSSIA

Russian steel producer Severstal said it expects Russian steel demand to fall by 5% to 7% in 2024 as the high cost of borrowing raises the strain on customers’ investment plans. The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 21% in late October, the highest level since early in President Putin’s rule that followed the upheavals from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

SOUTH AFRICA

ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) said back in July that it would no longer close but would continue to operate its long steel business. However, in a mid-October trading update, the company acknowledged that the government has acted to introduce support measures but said these were insufficient and more urgent action is needed to save the business.

SOUTH KOREA

The Korea Trade Commission announced that it has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Chinese-made heavy steel plates, primarily used in shipbuilding. Hyundai Steel had previously filed a complaint on the issue to the Industry Ministry.

SPAIN

Acerinox, Spain’s largest producer of stainless steel, was reported to be set to halt production at its 1 million tonnes/year smelter in Los Barrios, Cadiz. This followed on from reports of a temporary lay-off agreement with employees.

Hydnum Steel said it is advancing its plan to build a green steel plant at Puertollano in the Castilla La Mancha region in partnership with Siemens, ABEI Energy and Russuia Corporation. It is using Siemens digital technology in all the production stages from the design to the complete start-up of the facility. The greenfield Puertollano plant is to be powered by renewable energy and green hydrogen producing up to 1.5 million tonnes/year of rolled steel by 2026 rising to 2.6 million tonnes/year from 2030.

SWEDEN

The European Commission has approved a 128 million euros state aid package for SSAB’s plans to switch its Lulea plant from coal-based steel production to building a new electric arc furnace to produce 2.5 million tonnes/year of green steel slabs. As we reported earlier, the plant will consist of two electric arc furnaces, a secondary metallurgy facility, a direct strip-rolling mill and a cold rolling complex. The plant will run off a mix of fossil-free sponge iron from the Hybrit demonstration plant at Gallivare and recycled scrap. Startup is planned for the end of 2028 reaching full operating capacity one year later

TURKEY

The Turkish government has imposed anti-dumping duties on some steel imports from China, Russia, India and Japan affecting around 4 million tonnes of product imports according to the Turkish Steel Producers Association. The duties range from 6.1% to 43.31% with the highest tariffs imposed on Chinese imports.

UNITED KINGDOM

The UK’s Trade Remedies Authority has confirmed the creation of a new 2.3 million tonnes/year Category 1B quota for steel imported for the purpose of downstream processing. It will exist alongside the existing quota which allows the tariff-free import of almost 1 million tonnes/year of steel. The decision was made in response to the closure of Tata Steel’s Port Talbot steelworks at the end of September.

Tata Steel said it has signed a contract with Italy-based Tenova for a new 3 million tonnes/year scrap-fed electric arc furnace for its Port Talbot site. The company aims to submit a planning application in November 2024 and to start work on the project around July 2025. Commissioning is planned from the end of 2027.

UKRAINE

Russian troops were reported to have advanced to within 7.5 km of the eastern town of Pokrovsk in late October, the site of a key coking coal mine supplying Ukraine’s remaining steel industry. As we reported last month, the head of Association of Enterprises Ukrmetalurgprom said that steel production in Ukraine could fall by more than 50% if Ukrainian control over Pokrovsk is lost, cutting Ukrainian steel production to 2-3 million tonnes/year.

USA

The plans by Swedish steelmaker SSAB to build a hydrogen-based directly reduced iron plant in Perry County, Mississippi, to provide green iron for its existing electric arc furnace in Iowa appear to have hit headwinds. Hy Stor Energy had signed an exclusive letter of intent earlier this year to supply fuel for the project, proposing to build wind, solar and geothermal electricity generating capacity to produce hydrogen to be stored in underground salt caverns. Late in September Hy Stor was reported to have cancelled a preliminary supply deal with Nel, a Norwegian electrolyser manufacturer. Such equipment uses electric current to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Hy Stor said it was not cancelling its hydrogen hub plans but that it was taking longer than anticipated to bring it to fruition.

POWER COAL

IEA

The International Energy Agency published its World Energy Outlook 2024 in mid-October. While the analysis looks out to 2050, the near-term outlook to 2030 shows world coal demand falling from 5986 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2023 to 5307 Mtce in 2030, a drop of just over 11%. This is under the Stated Polices Scenario (STEPS). Under the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), the fall is greater, down 21.5% to 4702 Mtce. Over the same 7-year period, world steam coal production falls 16.1% from 5079 to 4262 Mtce under STEPS and drops 26.3% to 3743 Mtce under APS. On the same basis, world coking coal production falls 6.1% from 970 to 911 Myce under STEPS and drops 12.3% to 851 Mtce under APS.

China remains the largest consumer of coal accounting for over half of global coal demand out to 2035, but surging growth in renewables and slowly declining demand in industry lead coal use to fall over the next few years. India, the second largest consumer of coal, is the main driver of future demand growth. Demand also increases steadily in several countries in Southeast Asia. The IEA expects world coal trade over the 2023-2030 period to decline by 15.6% from 1144 to 965 Mtce under STEPS and drop by 30.3% to 797 Mtce under APS.

AUSTRALIA

Glencore and Yancoal have withdrawn a proposal for the largest coal mining project in New South Wales from consideration under federal environmental laws after state planning officials raised concerns about the project’s greenhouse gas emissions. The Hunter Valley Operations expansion plan for the coal mining complex near Muswellbrook would have extended the life of the North mine by 25 years from 2025 to 2050 and the South mine by 15 years from 2030 to 2045.

CHINA

Chinese customs data reported that coal imports in September reached a monthly record of 47.59 million tonnes, up 13% year-on-year, as international coal prices declined. Coal imports in the first nine months of this year hit 389 million tonnes, up 11.9% year-on-year.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that domestic coal production totalled 414.46 million tonnes in September, up 8.0% from August on an average daily tonnage basis and up 4.4% year-on-year. Production from January to September totalled 3.48 billion tonnes, up 0.6% year-on-year reflecting constraints on output earlier in 2024 caused by mine safety inspections.

China Energy Investment announced that it has begun construction on a 4 million tonnes/year plant to liquefy coal into oil. The project aims to use renewable energy in the process. The first phase is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2027. This is the latest in a series of coal-to-oil projects as China reaches peak coal use in power generation.

CZECH REPUBLIC

The Czech government has approved a draft revised National Energy and Climate Plan which aims to phase out coal by 2033. The Energy and Trade Minister said the government will also stop exporting brown coal-fired electricity.

INDIA

India’s coal-fired power output fell for a second straight month in September, down 5.8% year-on-year following on from a 4.9% year-on-year fall in August. This was preceded by 47 straight months of year-on-year growth in coal-fired power generation according to federal grid regulator data. The shift was attributable to higher rainfall in this year’s monsoon season reducing air-conditioning demand and a jump in solar-power generation, up 26.4% in September from a year earlier. There has also been sharp rise in nuclear power generation.

India has reportedly extended the mandate for the country’s imported coal-based power plants to operate at full capacity from mid-October until 31 December in anticipation of higher power demand. These plants have a combined annual capacity of nearly 16 gigawatts.

MALAYSIA

The Deputy Prime Minister said that Malaysia is to transition away from coal-fired power generation and that no new coal-fired plants are in the pipeline.

PAKISTAN

Pakistan Railways is planning the construction of a 105 km railway line to link Thar coal mines with the port of Qasim. The project, backed by Sindh state and national governments, is set to be completed by 2025. The line will have the capacity to haul 10 million tonnes /year of coal and aims to shift Pakistan’s reliance from imported to domestic coal sources.

TURKEY

Turkey generated a record 88 terawatt hours of electricity from coal in the first nine months of 2024, up 2% year-on-year according to the energy think tank Ember.

USA

The US Energy Information Agency has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook which projects US power consumption to rise to record levels in 2024 and 2025. However, coal’s share of power generation will ease from 17% in 2023 to 16% in 2024 and 2025 as renewable output rises.

ALUMINIUM

IAI

The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production in September rose 1.3% year-on-year to total 6.007 million tonnes, with 59.8% produced in China. The global total was also fractional higher than the revised August’s record monthly level when measured on an average daily tonnage basis. Global production in the first nine months of this year totalled 54.251 million tonnes, up 3.0% year-on-year. The IAI also reported that global alumina production in September totalled 12.03 million tonnes, down 0.02% year-on-year. Global alumina production from January to September 2024 totalled 108.98 million tonnes, up 1.9% year-on-year.

MARKETS

The interruption to Emirates Global Aluminium bauxite exports from Guinea (see our report under Guinea) saw the spot price of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit an all-time high of $645/tonne in mid-October, nearly double the price of around $330/tonne at the end of last year. While aluminium producers will be largely shielded by long-term supply contracts, the reliance on Guinean bauxite coupled with alumina supply issues in Australia due to shortages of natural gas, highlights the fragility in global aluminium supply chains.

AUSTRALIA

Metro Mining shipped a record 780,000 wet tonnes of bauxite in September from its Bauxite Hills Mine in Queensland beating the previous record of 720,000 tonnes in August. As we noted last month, the company is in the process of expanding annual output from 3.5 million tonnes to 6 million tonnes. The mine, situated 95 km north of Weipa, operates only in the dry season from April to December.

BAHRAIN

Aluminium Bahrain has secured a long-term contract extension with Alcoa to supply up to 16.5 million tonnes of smelter grade alumina over 10 years from 2026 to 2035, primarily sourced from Western Australia.

CANADA

CHINA

Shanghai Metals Market expects China’s aluminium production in 4Q24 to rise 3% year-on-year to 11 million tonnes. This assumes that smelters in Yunnan province will not face production cuts for the first time in four years due to abundant electricity supplies. Heavy rainfall has led to a surge in hydro generation and has filled reservoirs ahead of drier winter months.

China’s primary aluminium production in September totalled 3.65 million tonnes according to the National Bureau of Statistics, up 1.2% year-on-year. Production in the first nine months of this year totalled 32.56 million tonnes, up 4.6% from the same period in 2023.

China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production totalled 6.91 million tonnes in September according to the Shanghai Metals Market, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. Output in the first nine months of this year totalled 61.596 million tonnes, up 3.7% year-on-year.

GUINEA

Emirates Global Aluminium announce a suspension of bauxite exports from its Guinea Alumina Corporation subsidiary citing customs actions by the Guinean authorities. EGA noted that production at its UAE-based Al Taweelah refinery remains unaffected. The stoppage caused a jump in aluminium prices.

INDIA

The Aluminium Association of India has urged the government to raise the basic customs duty on primary aluminium and aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% to prevent it being dumped in the Indian market.

Vedanta has made a pledge to the Odisha government to establish a 6 million tonnes/year alumina refinery and a 3 million tonnes/year aluminium smelter in the state. Both plants are to be powered by renewable energy.

RUSSIA

Rusal reportedly plans to double the capacity of its Boguchansky aluminium smelter in Siberia to 600,000 tonnes/year by 2030. Construction is expected to start in 2025.

SPAIN

Alcoa said it was progressing towards a strategic cooperation agreement with Spanish renewable energy company Ignis to help fund the operation of its San Ciprian aluminium plant in northwestern Spain. Under the proposed deal Ignis would initially invest $75 million and take a 25% stake in the plant. Alcoa has long complained about the level of energy prices in Spain and was unsuccessful in trying to sell 100% of the San Ciprian plant earlier this year.

USA

The US Geological Survey reported that US primary aluminium production in July fell by 11% year-on-year to 57,000 tonnes. Secondary recovered aluminium in July totalled 292,000 tonnes, up 2.1% year-on-year.

AGRIBULK

FAO

The FAO’s World Food Price Index in September saw its fastest increase in 18 months rising 3.0% from August to average 124.4 points. The FAO cereal index in September also increased by 3.0%, led by higher wheat and maize export prices. The FAO Sugar price Index saw a 10.4% jump in September, driven by worsening crop prospects in Brazil and concerns that India’s decision to lift restrictions on sugarcane use for ethanol production may restrict export availability. Meanwhile, the FAO All-Rice Price index decreased by 0.7%, partly reflecting generally quiet trading. The FAO also raised marginally its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2,853 million tonnes, with upward revisions to rice and wheat output outweighing a small reduction to global coarse grains production.

USDA

The US Department of Agriculture’s October forecast updates contained only minor net adjustments to 2024/25 season export trade forecasts with the biggest swing occurring in rice estimates following India’s removal of its export ban. Looking across all the principal commodities (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soyabeans, and soyabean meal), net changes to the 2024/25 season saw an overall export trade increase of 0.45 million tonnes, a rise of just 0.06%.

The EU 2024/25 wheat export forecast was marked down by 1.5 million tonnes on a smaller French crop and a slow pace of exports. This was partially offset by a further 1.0 million tonne rise in the Ukrainian forecast due to a larger crop and strong exports in the seasonal first quarter. The Ukrainian maize export forecast for 2024/25 was reduced by 1.0 million tonnes while the Russian forecast was trimmed by 0.5 million tonnes, both due to expected lower crops. However, this was partly offset by a 0.64 million tonnes upgrade to the US export estimate put down to lower competition from other major exporters. The big adjustment to 2024/25 rice export forecasts was a 3.0 million tonne jump in the Indian estimate based on increased sales to Africa and Asia following the removal on the non-basmati rice export ban. This was partially offset by minor reductions in expected shipments from Pakistan, Thailand and Viet Nam. There were no significant changes to the USDA’s 2024/25 export forecasts for soybeans and soyabean meal.

WEATHER

Australia’s weather bureau said the likelihood of a La Nina weather event in coming months has decreased and, if it did appear, it would be weak and short-lived. La Nina is typically linked to increased rainfall in Australia, Southeast Asia and India and reduced rainfall in North and South America. Meanwhile, the US government forecaster said there is a 60% chance of a La Nina weather conditions emerging in September-November, and they are likely to persist through January-March next year.

ARGENTINA

A 24-hour strike by transportation unions opposing government austerity measures at the end of October blocked ships docking or departing Argentine grain ports.

BANGLADESH

Bangladesh’s agriculture ministry has estimated that recent floods have destroyed 1.1 million tonnes of rice leading to soaring prices and prompting a ramp up in imports. The ministry is acting to import 500,000 tonnes of rice and is expected to permit private sector imports soon.

BRAZIL

Brazil’s crop agency Conab has estimated the country’s total 2024/25 maize crop at 119.74 million tonnes, up 3.5% from the previous season. This contrasts with the most recent USDA crop estimate which is 6% higher at 127 million tonnes. The difference is important for export trade, as the USDA has 2024/25 maize exports up 6% on the previous season, while Conab has exports down 5%. When it comes to soybeans, the difference is smaller. Conab has the 2024/25 soybean crop at 166 million tonnes while the USDA latest estimate is 169 million tonnes.

Following on from last month’s report of drought conditions in the Amazon region impacting grain shipments out of Brazil’s northern ports, the region’s largest port Manaus reported in early October that its water level had fallen to a 122-year low.

EU

The EU has U-turned on its impending regulations banning commodity imports linked to deforestation and is now offering to delay implementation by a least a year. See the report under Forest Products for further commentary.

INDIA

The commodity trader Wilmar has projected that India’s increase in ethanol production due to higher gasoline blending rates will reduce local sugar availability and prevent the country from exporting sugar in the 2024/25 season. Wilmar estimates India’s net sugar production in 2024/25 to be 27.5 million tonnes creating a shortfall of 2 million tonnes to be met by a stock drawdown.

Indian authorities have removed the floor price for the export of non-basmati white rice to help farmers and exporters sell various grades abroad. The president of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation said that the floor price prohibited the sale of relatively cheaper grades of rice on the world market, but the removal of the restriction will make Indian supplies more competitive.

The Indian government has raised the price it will pay to buy new-season wheat from domestic farmers by 6.6% to encourage producers to expand acreage and remove the need for wheat imports

INDONESIA

The Indonesian government is considering a plan to import 1 million tonnes of rice from India to boost supplies ahead of its main domestic crop. The country’s rice crop is expected to fall 2.43% this year to 30.34 million tonnes according to the nation’s statistics bureau.

Indonesia’s incoming president plans to expand planting areas for food crops by 3 million hectares over the next five years to produce more staples such as rice, maize and soybean in a new food self-sufficiency drive. The country currently has 7.4 million hectares of farm area, a decline of 8.5% since 2015.

MEXICO

Mexico’s rail consortium Ferromex and US railroad Union Pacific stopped issuing permits for some grain shipments moving through Eagle Pass, Texas, after a train derailment in Mexico closed the track. This is the latest mishap in a string of grain freight rail backlogs at the border. As we reported last month, the US National Grain and Feed Association said that rail capacity to ship agricultural exports to Mexico was not keeping up with demand.

RUSSIA

Russia’s wheat production in 2025 is expected to shrink for a third year to total 80.1 million tonnes after a lack of rain delayed plantings, according to the consultancy SovEcon. SovEcon added that the poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill. The USDA reduced its forecast of 2024/25 Russian wheat production from 83 to 82 million tonnes in its latest WASDE report.

UKRAINE

Ukraine’s grain exports have jumped in the current July-June marketing year. The agriculture ministry reported that grain exports as of 21 October totalled 12 million tonnes, up from 8.3 million tonnes for the same period last year. This included 7.2 million tonnes of wheat and 3.8 million tonnes of maize. More grain is moving via the Black Sea corridor with shipments via the Romanian port of Constanta down 13% year-on-year.

Ukraine said that Russian missiles struck two grain vessels loading in its Black Sea port of Odessa and the nearby port of Pivdennyi in early October.

USA

The US Department of Agriculture said on 21 October that 2.5 million tonnes of US soybeans were inspected for export the previous week, including 1.7 million tonnes destined for China. The flurry in exports was reportedly due to grain merchants rushing to ship out ahead of the US presidential election amid fears of renewed trade tensions with key importer China. Tariff threats from presidential contender Donald Trump were reportedly causing some Chinese importers to shun US shipments from January onward and to switch to buying more Brazilian soybeans.

FERTILISER

BANGLADESH

Bangladesh’s ongoing gas supply crisis has shut down four of the county’s five urea plants forcing the government to boost fertiliser imports. It has approved the import of 60,000 tonnes of urea from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to bolster stocks ahead of the Boro rice planting season. The Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation also plans to import 30,000 tonnes of phosphate rock and 20,000 tonnes of phosphatic acid.

BELGIUM

Yara Tetre plans to transform its site by replacing locally produced ammonia with ammonia from other locations and focus on its most profitable products. On completing changes, Tetre will produce 600,000 tonnes/year of premium nitrate fertilisers and 250,000 tonnes/year of high added-value industrial products. The plant will also transition to low-carbon production by using low-emission ammonia.

BRAZIL

Atlas Agro and Casa dos Ventos have signed a MoU for the supply of wind and solar energy to produce green fertiliser using green hydrogen at Atlas Agro’s Uberaba fertiliser plant. The project is expected to be operational in 2028 with a capacity to produce approximately 530,000 tonnes of fertiliser.

INDIA

The deepening political row between the governments of India and Canada, with tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats, has not yet impacted imports of Canadian potash. While India has alternative sources of supply such as from Belarus, Russia, Israel and Jordan, the country is heavily dependent on potash imports for its vast agricultural sector.

NIGERIA

A deal has been agreed by joint venture partners, including Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni, to supply gas to the proposed $3.5 billion Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Project. The plant is to be built by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and will produce up to 10,000 tonnes/day of methanol for a variety of uses. The project is expected to reduce Nigeria’s fertiliser imports by 30%.

USA

Atlas Agro and International Raw Materials have announced a strategic offtake and partnership agreement for the 700,000 tonnes/year Atlas Agro’s Pacific Green Fertiliser plant in Richland, Washington. The final investment decision on the project is expected in early 2025.

Mosaic reported that Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida in late September, caused limited damage across its facilities. The Riverview fertiliser plant was offline after suffering water intrusion but was expected to return to full capacity in approximately 10 days. The company subsequently reported that it had idled its Florida operations ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton in early October. Mosiac also said that Milton had caused fertiliser wastewater to enter Tampa Bay which raised potential environmental concerns. The company’s operational update on 21 October said all its production facilities in Florida had returned to normal operations except Riverview, which had resumed production and was expected to be back to normal by the end of the week. On the same date, Canada-based Nutrien said its Florida phosphate facility in White Springs had restarted.

The Fertilizer Institute said that the US port strike could cause significant disruption to fertiliser trade but as noted in the report under Economic News, the strike was quickly settled. Interestingly, TFI noted that ports affected by the strike accounted for nearly 50% of US fertiliser trade over the last five years. TFI added that within the global fertiliser marketplace, Tampa, New Orleans and Houston are three of the US’s most important ports for fertiliser imports and exports. Half of all East and Gulf coast fertiliser exports move through Tampa and 70% of the region’s fertiliser imports enter through New Orleans.

FOREST PRODUCTS

BELARUS

Forestry institutions affiliated with the Belarusian Forestry Ministry sold more than 788.000 cubic metres of timber in the first nine months of 2024, up 12.5% year-on-year. The ministry expects to reach a record 1 million cubic metres of timber exports by the end of the year. China remains the main sales market accounting for about a half of all timber exports.

BRAZIL

The International Tropical Timber Organisation reported that the value of Brazilian exports of wood-based products, excluding pulp and paper, fell by 10.8% year-on-year in August. Pine sawnwood export volume decreased 10.4% year-on-year in August to 208,200 cubic metres while tropical sawnwood exports fell 33.1% to 17,600 cubic metres.

CANADA

Western Forest Products said it proposed to cut the amount of timber produced at its sawmills in British Colombia by about 30 million board feet in 4Q24, the same as was cut in the previous quarter. Timber production for the full year of 2024 is expected to be down 10% from the company’s annual capacity. The temporary curtailments were due to lower timber demand, difficulties in obtaining profitable supply of logs and higher softwood import duty rates in the US.

San Group is to temporarily close its large log mill and value-added manufacturing plant in Port Alberni, British Colombia, due to a lack of fibre supply and low log stock.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian lumber production in July decreased 7.7% from June to 3.681 million cubic metres but was still up 2.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Canadian sawmills shipped 3.867 million cubic metres of lumber in July, down 5.3% from June but up 4.2% from a year earlier.

CHINA

China’s log and sawn timber imports in September were reported to be 5.072 million cubic metres, flat year-on-year. Log and sawn timber imports in the period January to September totalled 48.295 million cubic metres, down 2.7% year-on-year.

EU

The EU has offered to postpone its regulations banning the import of commodities linked to deforestation, after informing WTO members in September that it would not delay implementation which was set from 30 December this year. Several non-EU governments, including Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia, had objected claiming that it would damage trade and hurt small farmers. There was also opposition from some EU governments, including Austria, Germany and Sweden. The European Commission said it would now delay implementation until 30 December 2025 for large companies and until 30 June 2026 for small companies, subject to approval by the 27 EU member countries. A subsequent meeting of EU ambassadors agreed to the delay.

EU import volumes of tropical sawn timber in the first half of 2024 fell 20% year-on-year to 350,000 cubic metres, according to the International Tropical Timber Organisation.

The EU has started an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese plywood imports. Reports suggest that Russia is sending hardwood to China, which is then used for plywood production, despite a ban on Russian timber in the EU. The investigation is expected to take more than a year, but all Chinese plywood imports will be tracked at EU borders for possible retroactive tariffs.

FINLAND

Metsa Group plans to end production at Suolahti plywood mill due to poor profitability. The mill has annual production capacity of 35,000 cubic metres of birch plywood and 160,000 cubic metres of spruce plywood.

The Natural Resources Institute Finland reported that the volume of roundwood trade in the first nine months of 2024 was 11% higher than last year and almost a fifth higher than the average for the previous five years.

USA

Single-family housing starts in September increased 2.7% to a 1.03 million seasonally adjusted rate according to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. On a year-to-date basis, single family construction is up 10.1%. The chairman of the National Association of Home Builders said that the increase in single-family construction in September mirrored their survey of builder confidence. The NAHB is forecasting a gradual, if uneven, decline for mortgage rates in the coming quarters, with corresponding increases in single-family construction. However, multifamily construction will remain weak as completion of apartments are elevated.

Besse Forest Products Group has closed six green lumber sawmills and veneer mills in Wisconsin and Michigan following the appointment in September of a receiver for the company’s assets.

CEMENT

ARGENTINA

The national cement association AFCP reported that Argentina’s cement demand in September fell 18.4% year-on-year to 0.913 million tonnes. Over the first nine months of 2024 cement demand contracted by 27% from a year earlier to total 6.963 million tonnes. By way of background, the latest IMF data shows Argentina’s GDP contracting by 3.5% this year but rebounded by 5% in 2025.

BANGLADESH

Confidence Cement is investing the equivalent of US$68 million in a new 6,000 tonnes/day cement plant in Narsingdl million. The plant is scheduled for completion in early 2025 and aims to service construction demand in the capital Dhaka and surrounding regions.

B0LIVIA

The National Statistics Institute reported that cement production in the first eight months of 2024 totalled 2.6 million tonnes, up from 2.53 million tonnes in the same period last year. The Bolivian Institute of Cement and Concrete say installed cement capacity is 10 million tonnes/year.

COLOMBIA

Cementos Argos reported that its Cartegena plant exported 1.5 million tonnes of cement and clinker in the first nine months of 2024, up 10% year-on-year. Shipments were made to customers in the US, Caribbean and central America.

INDIA

Indian cement demand is expected to grow by 7-8% to around 475 million tonnes in the 2024 financial year that started in April, according to CRISIL Ratings. Their analysis suggests that growth was constrained to 3% in the first half of FY2024 impacted by a heatwave and labour shortage during the general elections. They expect infrastructure and housing sectors post-monsoon to boost cement demand growth to 9-11% in the second half of the financial year.

INDONESIA

The Indonesian cement association ASI reported that cement sales contracted by 2.9% year-on-year in September to total 6.07 million tonnes. Meanwhile, domestic cement production in September decreased by 1.2% year-on-year to 6.24 million tonnes.

Taiheiyo Cement plans to export up to 1 million tonnes/year of cement from Indonesia to the US through its stake in PT Solusi Bangun Indonesian. The plan includes building a new ship loading pier.

KAZAKHSTAN

China’s Sinoma has fired up a new clinker production line at the Korcem project in Kazakhstan. It will now be optimised to reach a full capacity of 1.5 million tonnes/year.

KYRGYZSTAN

Cement production in Kyrgyzstan in the first eight months of 2024 totalled 2.06 million tonnes, a rise of 2% over the same period last year.

MOROCCO

Total cement deliveries rose 4.1% year-on-year in September according to Morocco’s cement association APC. Total domestic deliveries in the first nine months of 2024 were up 6.9% year-on-year to total 9.82 million tonnes.

SPAIN

Spain’s cement consumption in the first nine months of 2024 totalled 10.9 million tonnes, down 0.5% year-on-year, according to the country’s cement association Oficemen. However, consumption in September was up 7.1% year-on-year at 1.22 million tonnes.

TURKEY

Sonmez Cement announced that it is to add a second production line at its Adana Ceyhan plant. The new line will have a clinker capacity of 2.16 million tonnes/year and a cement capacity of 4.73 million tonnes/year.

USA

The US Geological Survey reported that shipments of Portland and blended cement, including imports, fell by 2.9% year-on-year in July to 9.29 million tonnes. Shipments in the first seven months of 2024 totalled 58.64 million tonnes, down 5.25% year-on-year.

VIET NAM

The General Statistics Office reported that Viet Nam produced 134.5 million tonnes of cement in the first nine months of 2024, up 2% year-on-year. Production in September totalled 15.3 million tonnes, up 9% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the Viet Nam Cement Association reported that cement export sales in September fell 14% year-on-year to 1.98 million tonnes while clinker export sales fell 23% year-on-year to 0.69 million tonnes. Cement exports in the first nine months of 2024 totalled 14.95 million tonnes, down 3% year-on-year. The equivalent figure for clinker exports was 7.65 million tonnes, a drop of 5% year-on-year.