Leonard Hockley Dry Cargo A
review of the fundamental demand changes to the global forecast July 2024
Contents
The OECD
reported that G20 GDP growth picked up a little in the first quarter of 2024,
mainly driven by China and India. GDP in the G20 area grew by 0.9%
quarter-on-quarter in 1Q24 according to provisional estimates, slightly up on
0.7% in the previous quarter.
A UN Trade
& Development report found that global foreign direct investment (FDI)
flows declined by 2% to $1.3 trillion in 2023. However, in developing
countries, they fell by 7% to $867 billion. While the prospects for FDI remain
challenging in 2024, the report notes that modest growth for the full year
appears possible, citing the easing of financial conditions and concentrated
efforts towards investment facilitation – a prominent feature of national
policies and international agreements.
The World
Bank has released its flagship Global Economic Prospects report. It states that
global growth is projected to stabilise at 2.6% this year, holding steady for
the first time in three years, despite flaring geopolitical tensions and high
interest rates. It is then expected to edge up to 2.7% in 2025-26 amid modest
growth in trade and investment. Despite an improvement in near-term growth
prospects, the outlook remains subdued by historical standards in both advanced
economies and emerging market and developing economies.
Trade
growth, which came to a halt last year, is showing signs of recovery amid a
pickup in goods trade. Commodity prices have come off their 2022 peaks and
supply chain pressure has waned, helping to reduce global inflation. Global
trade in goods and services is projected to expand by 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in
2025, still below average rates in the two decades preceding the pandemic.
An IMF
mission to Canada concluded that real GDP growth is set to recover gradually
this year to 1.3% from 1.2% in 2023, supported by the expected normalization of
monetary policy, some easing of fiscal policy, continued (even if slowing)
immigration and the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline.
The Indian government was reported to be planning to set up a new
shipping company to expand its fleet by at least 1,000 ships in the next decade
as it seeks to take a larger share of revenues from surging trade as the
country strives to become a world-class manufacturer. The entity will be jointly owned by state-run
companies in the oil, gas and fertiliser industries which will also provide it
with business including signing 15-year charter deals. The aim is to reduce
freight outgoings to foreign firms by at least a third by 2047.
An IMF mission to Indonesia concluded that the country’s economy remains
positive despite external challenges. Growth is projected at 5.0% in 2024, and 5.1% in 2025,
with dynamic domestic demand offsetting the drag from softer commodity
prices.
The Panama Canal Authority announced a further increase in the permitted
number of daily transits through the Panama Canal from 32 to 33 vessels effective
July 11, following the onset of the country’s rainy season. Daily transits are
also due to rise to 34 from July 22. In addition, an increase in draft from 45
to 46 feet was announced effective June 15.
An IMF mission to the United States concluded that the country’s GDP
growth will fall back from 2.6% this year to 1.9% in 2025 and then slowly
recover to 2.0% in 2026 and to 2.1% in each of the following three years, On
trade, the IMF noted that ongoing intensification of trade restrictions and the
increased use of preferences in the
treatment of domestic versus foreign commercial interest represent a
growing downside risk for both the US and the global economy.
The latest May 2024 crude steel
production data from the WSA had global output across 71 reporting countries at
165.1 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year. Chinese output for the month was estimated
at 92.9 million tonnes, up 2.7% year-on-year. Outside China, other major
producers that recorded year-on-year losses in May included South Korea (-10.9%),
Brazil (-7.4%), Japan (-6.3%), the US (-1.5%), and Russia (-0.9%). There were
year-on-year gains in Turkey (+11.6%), India (+3.5%), Iran (+2.1%), and the EU
(+1.8%). The WSA estimated Chinese crude steel output in the first five months
of 2024 at 438.6 million tonnes, down 1.4% year-on-year. Over the same period India’s
output totalled 61.9 million tonnes, up 7.7% year-on-year, while EU production
totalled 56.1 million tonnes, down just 0.1% year-on-year.
Global steel
product exports, including ingots, semi-finished products, hot rolled and cold
finished products, tubes, wire and unworked castings and forges, totalled 402.3
million tonnes in 2023, up 6.4% year-on-year, according to the WSA’s World
Steel in Figures 2024 publication. Global crude steel production in 2023
totalled 1.89 billion tonnes, up just by 0.1% compared to the previous year.
Mineral
Resources announced that it will shut down its Yilgarn
iron ore mine at the end of this year. The company has been shipping out around
7 million tonnes/year via the Western Australian port of Esperance. The loss of
trade will be partly offset by a new agreement with Gold Valley Iron Ore to
ship around 1.5 million tonnes a year through the port. Mined ore will be
transported by road to Kalgoorlie and then railed to Esperance.
Rio Tinto
announced that it will spend $143 million on a research and development
facility in Western Australia to assess the effectiveness of its low-carbon
iron-making process termed Bioiron. The process uses
raw biomass and microwave energy rather than coking coal to convert iron ore to
metallic iron, potentially reducing carbon emission by up to 99%. The facility
is expected to be commissioned in 2026.
The National
Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s steel production in May totalled
92.86 million tonnes, up 2.7% year-on-year and the highest monthly total since
March 2023. Production was also up 4.6% on April when measured on an average
daily tonnage basis.
The General
Administration of Customs reported that China imported 102.03 million tonnes of
iron ore in May, down 3% on April when measured on an average daily tonnage
basis. The May total was also up 6.1% year-on-year. Iron ore imports in the
first five months of this year totalled 513.75 million tonnes, up 7%
year-on-year. This surge in imports has also seen iron ore stocks at Chinese
ports rise by over 30 million tonnes over the same five-month period.
Liberty
Steel Group has withdrawn its restructuring plan and decided to sell its
Ostrava steelworks having now filed for judicial reorganisation under the
insolvency Act. As we have covered over recent months, the company has faced
ongoing financial difficulties. Liberty also points to deteriorating steel
market conditions in Europe for its decision.
The European
Commission has proposed extending the EU safeguard measure on 26 products
categories of steel imports by a further two years out to the end of June 2026.
It will also introduce a 15% cap per origin over “other country” tariff-rate
quota for hot rolled coil to ensure market stability and avoid crowding out
traditional suppliers. The European steel association Eurofer
has welcomed the decision but emphasised the need for a long-term solution to
address global excess capacity.
ArcelorMittal
Bremen has been granted an initial permit covering the construction and
operation of an electric arc furnace as a first step in transiting from blast
furnace to green steel production.
Thyssenkrupp
Steel said it would put forward plans in August for a delayed green steel
project at its Duisburg site. The German government has already earmarked 2
billion euros in subsidies for the plan to move from blast furnace operations
to green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and electric arc furnace
technology.
As part of
its plan to eliminate coal imports by the 2026 financial year, the Ministry of
Coal is also targeting new coking coal mines. The government aims to open three
new coking coal mines in Jharkhand this financial year with annual capacity
ranging from 5 to 6.5 million tonnes. There are also plans to establish more
coal washeries to reduce the ash content of existing coals making them more
suitable for use in the steel industry. (See also comments under India in the
power coal section).
The European
Court of Justice has ruled that the major steel plant in the Italian city of
Taranto should be shut down if it poses significant threats to the environment
and human health. The ex-Ilva plant is now known as Acciaierie
d’Italia and is under government administration after
ArcelorMittal pulled out. The plant is heavily indebted and has faced legal
action over its environmental and health impacts for many years, but it remains
a major employer in an economically depressed region of southern Italy. The ECJ
has left the final decision on whether the plant should be shut to the Milan
district court.
ArcelorMittal
said that a blockade by workers at its steel production site in western Mexico
since late May had held up an estimated 300,000 tonnes of steel and brought all
activities to a halt.
Mexican
steel producer Deacero said its new scrap-fed
electric arc furnace at its Ramos Arizpe plant is due to begin operations in
February 2026 and will add 1 million tonnes/year of new steel output to the
company’s current production of around 4.5 million tonnes/year of steel
products across several sites.
Last month we reported that Tata Steel Netherland had awarded
engineering contracts to Danieli and Tenova for a direct reduction iron plant,
an electric arc furnace and other facilities at its Ijmuiden works. Tata Steel
has now said that it is in detailed talks with the Dutch government on a
proposed decarbonisation roadmap amid reports that the government may provide
as much as three billion euros to the project.
Vulcan Green
Steel say they have provisional offtake agreements that exceed the capacity of
their hydrogen ready 6 million tonnes/year steel complex under construction in
Oman that is due to start up in 2027.
The project is backed by Indian power and steel conglomerate Jindal
Group. Among European companies that are reported to have committed to offtake
low-carbon steel are Volkswagen AG and Czech-based Vitkovice
Steel.
The federal government
was reported to have decided to shut down the financially struggling Pakistan
Steel Mills and repurpose the site for other industrial usage. PSM ceased
operations in 2015 and has been receiving minimal gas supply to maintain its
infrastructure. There were also reported to be plans to establish a new steel
mill on the site in partnership with the Sindh provincial government.
The troubled
steelmaker Liberty Czestochowa has been placed into receivership casting doubts
on the heavy plate mill’s plans to restart production. The subsidiary of
Liberty Group has a 700,000 tonnes/year electric arc furnace and 1.2 million
tonnes/year of heavy plate capacity.
Liberty
Galati has temporarily idled its blast furnace number 5 at its Galati works
having only restarted it in February. Downstream rolling mills will continue to
operate using slab stock.
India’s
Essar Group is now awaiting final approvals to start work on a $4.5 billion new
steel plant at Ras Al-Khair in Saudi Arabia. The plant will have 4 million
tonnes/year capacity plus two new dedicated terminals at Pas Al-Khair port. The
plant will use gas-based direct reduced iron and electric arc furnace
technology.
US Steel
Kosice has reignited its 1.7 million tonnes/year blast furnace No.2 after
nearly four months of downtime. The downtime was extended amid persistently
weak demand for steel and deteriorating prices. All three blast furnaces at the
site are now reported to be operational, restoring total steel production
capacity to around 4.5 million tonnes.
The European
Commission has approved a 265 million euros grant to H2 Green Steel which is
building a new plant at Boden in Sweden. The facility will include a 690 MW
electrolyser, a direct reduced iron plant running on green hydrogen, two
electric arc furnaces and cold rolling and finishing equipment. Production of
2.4 million tonnes/year of green steel is expected to start in 2026.
Turkey’s
crude steel production rose 22.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024
while steel exports increased 49.4% over the same period according to the
Turkish Steel Producers’ Association. The rises were supported by higher demand
from the EU and additional steel production capacity.
Japan’s
Itochu and Emirates Steel Arkan are to begin a feasibility study to develop a
2.5 million tonnes/year direct reduced iron plant to process Brazilian iron ore
in Abu Dhabi for export as DRI to Japan. The Brazilian ore will be supplied by
CSN Mineracao and the plant
will be built in collaboration with Japan’s JFE Steel.
The trade union Unite said that
around 1,500 Tata Steel workers will begin an indefinite strike from July 8
(four days after the general election) over the company’s plans to close both
blast furnaces and cut up to 2,800 jobs. Unite added that this will be the
first strike by British steel workers in 40 years. Tata then reacted saying
that the strike action could force it to shut down blast furnace operations
earlier than planned.
China’s Tsingshan Holding Group has started pig iron production at
its new $1 billion steel plant in central Zimbabwe with the first steel output
expected in July. The company’s Dinson Iron and Steel Company will produce
600,000 tonnes/year of steel during its first phase. Tsingshan also has
ferrochrome, coking coal and lithium mining businesses in Zimbabwe.
The International Energy Agency has released the 2024 edition of its World Energy Investment report. Its main conclusions found that global investment in clean energy is set to reach almost double the amount going to fossil fuels in 2024. China is set to account for the largest share of clean energy investment this year followed by Europe and the US, these three major economies making up more than two-thirds of such investment globally. However, the IEA also noted that global coal investment is set to grow by 2% in 2024 to more than US$ 160 billion, close to the average level last seen in the early 2010s, led by India, Indonesia and Australia.
The last coal-fired power plant in
the province of Alberta has been taken offline. Capital Power’s Genesee 2 plant
is expected to be converted to run on gas. In 2015 the Alberta government
announced plans to phase out coal power by 2030. The ahead of schedule phaseout
of coal is due in large part to natural gas taking over much of the province’s
power generation.
China’s coal production has slowed slightly after two years of rapid growth. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that production in the first five months of this year totalled 1.858 billion tonnes, down by nearly 3% year-on-year.
The German government has announced
it will launch tenders in 2024 for 10 gigawatts of new gas-fired power station
capacity that must be ready to switch to clean hydrogen. Utilities will bid for
subsidies which the government are committed to pay as the plants will only
operate when weather-driven renewable supply falls short. The chief executive
of power company Uniper had previously commented that
10 gigawatt of new capacity was insufficient to encourage an early departure
from coal usage and that 20-25 gigawatt would be needed to make that happen.
Germany’s economy ministry said it
had won the European Commission’s clearance in principle to compensate LEAG
with up to 1.75 billion euros for exiting coal usage by 2038. The company
operates lignite-fired power plants in eastern Germany supplying around 10% of
the country’s power requirements.
The Ministry of Coal announced that
it aims to eliminate coal imports by the 2026 financial year. It plans to
operationalise 20 new mines in the current financial year that started in
April, including 12 with a total annual capacity of 58 million tonnes in the
first 100 days of the new government. There has also been a report that India
is to add 15.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired power plants in the current
financial year through to March 2025, the highest jump in nine years.
Coal stocks at Indian power stations
were reported to be 25% higher than in 2023 and 71% higher than in 2022 with
average stock sufficient for16 days generation. According to the coal ministry,
the easing of transportation bottlenecks has driven improvements in coal supply,
including the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor which became operational in
October 2023.
The Colombian trade ministry was
reported to have called for a restriction on coal sales to Israel because of
its campaign in Gaza. However, Israel’s power generation from coal is expected
to drop to as l ow as 3% next year as it serves only as an emergency backup for
two of the country’s main power stations. Israel also has the option to source
coal elsewhere including the US.
JERA, Japan’s largest power
generator, said that it has concluded a three-month trial of co-firing 20%
ammonia with coal at its Hekinan power station with
positive results. The company will now begin construction in July to enable
commercial operation using large volume ammonia substitution at the facility. Environmentalists
have criticised the plan for potentially extending the lifespan of coal-fired
power plants.
The Energy Secretary said that,
despite a moratorium on the development of new coal-fired power plants, coal
remains the main source in the Philippines’ energy mix accounting for 62%. The
country has 6,300 megawatts of coal-fired capacity aged 10 years or younger
which can be relied on to operate for at least another 30 years. There are also
over 3,400 megawatts of coal-fired capacity between 10 and 30 years old that
can operate for at least a further 10 years.
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade,
Industry and Energy has released a draft of its 11th Basic Plan for
Power Supply and Energy. In addition to converting coal-fired power plants to
using LNG, the plan is to also convert 12 coal-fired plants, whose design
lifespan reaches 30 years in 2037-38, into carbon-free plants using pumped
storage hydro or hydrogen power. Coal’s share of the energy mix is expected to
fall to 17.4% in 2030 (111.9 TWh) and to 10.3% by 2038 (72.0 TWh). The
government also plans to build up to three nuclear power plants and one small
modular reactor in the next 15 years to meet electricity demand. A cooperation
agreement was signed in June by eight of the country’s largest companies to
build South Korea’s first nuclear power plant by 2027, including Hyundai
Engineering, Samsung, Doosan Energy and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power.
Last month we reported on Ukrainian
appeals to Australia to supply thermal coal directly to meet its energy needs.
The Australian government has now responded opting to send $20 million in cash
to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund run by Ukraine and the EU rather than
supplying Australian coal directly.
Federal
agencies announced on June 10 that they have restored full access for
commercial shipping through the port of Baltimore after the removal of 50,000
tons of debris from the wreckage of the Baltimore bridge collapse. As we
reported last month, both coal terminals in the port had restarted coal
shipments in late May.
The energy
think tank Ember reported that Viet Nam’s coal-fired power generation in the
first four months of 2024 totalled 57 terawatt hours, up 42.5% year-on-year.
The surge was partly accounted for by a drop in the share of hydro-generated
power which fell from 25% to 15% over the same period. It is also generating a
jump in coal imports.
The
International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production
in May rose 3.4% year-on-year to total 6.134 million tonnes, with 59.5%
produced in China. Global production in the first five months of this year
totalled 29.90 million tonnes, up 4.0% year-on-year. The IAI also reported that
global alumina production in May totalled 12.040 million tonnes, up 0.2%
year-on-year. Global alumina production from January to May 2024 totalled 58.974
million tonnes, up 2.5% year-on-year.
China-owned Huatong Angola Industry has begun work on the Huatong Aluminium Industrial Park in Barra do Dande. Phase
one investment of around US$250 million is set to commence operations next year
producing 120,000 tonnes/year of electrolytic aluminium.
Rio Tinto announced
that it plans to invest US$165 million in renovating its Grande-Baie aluminium
smelter in Quebec. The money will be used to refurbish two anode baking
furnaces that have reached the end of their useful life. Rio said that the work
will be carried out in 2025 and 2026 and will ensure a competitive supply of
anodes to the Grande-Baie and Laterriere plants for decades to come.
China’s
primary aluminium production in May 2024 totalled 3.637 million tonnes
according to the National Bureau of Statistics, up 4.61% year-on-year but flat
month-on-month when measured on an average daily tonnage basis.
China’s
metallurgical grade alumina production totalled 6.989 million tonnes in May
according to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, up 1.3% month-on-month when
measured on an average daily tonnage basis. Total production in the first five
months of this year amounted to 33.451 million tonnes, up 3.42% year-on-year.
Emirates
Global Aluminium and the Aluminium Corporation of China (Chinalco) have signed
a framework agreement to advance their collaboration on developing an alumina
refinery in the Republic of Guinea. They plan to build a 2 million tonnes/year
capacity plant by September 2026 with initial production expected to be 1.2
million tonnes/year. Guinea already has the 600,000 tonnes/year Friguia alumina refinery operated by Russia’s Rusal.
Rio Tinto
has taken full ownership of New Zealand Aluminium Smelters after having agreed
to purchase the 20.64% shareholding held by Sumitomo Chemical Company. Rio
Tinto also confirmed that it will keep New Zealand’s sole aluminium smelter
operational until at least 2044, following the completion of new 20-year
electricity supply agreements. Subsequently, one of the electricity suppliers
Mercury said it will proceed with a $486 million expansion of the Kaiwera Downs wind farm near Gore on the South Island off
the back of the deal.
Russia’s
Rusal was reported to be in talks with the government of Sierra Leone to gain a
bauxite mining concession. Rusal already has bauxite mining operations in
neighbouring Guinea.
The
Aluminium Association released preliminary estimates of aluminium demand in the
United States and Canada which showed a 4.3 % increase year-on-year in the
first quarter of 2024 amidst new investment and a sustainability push.
The FAO’s World Food Price Index pushed
higher in May averaging 120.4 points, up 0.9% from the revised April level. The
FAO cereal index in May rose by 6.3% compared to the previous month, driven up
by rising global wheat prices. This reflected growing concerns about
unfavourable crop conditions curbing yields for 2024 harvests in major
producing areas, including parts of North America, Europe and the Black Sea
region. Maize export prices also rose in May following concerns over crop
disease in Argentina and unfavourable weather in Brazil. The FAO sugar price
index fell by 7.5% from April mainly due to a good start to the new harvest
season in Brazil.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics and Sciences June crop report forecast that the
country’s total winter crop in the 2024/25 season will increase by 9% from the
previous season to reach 51.3 million tonnes. Wheat production is forecast to
increase by 12% to 29.1 million tonnes in 2024/25, 10% above the average for
the previous 10 seasons. Barley production is forecast to increase by 7% to
11.5 million tonnes in 2024/25, 2% above the 10-year average to 2023/24.
Seven provinces in eastern China have
been hit by high temperatures and drought delaying the planting of new maize
crops. The regions account for around 35% of China’s maize production and the
drought threatens to curb domestic supply.
French farmers are bracing for their
worst wheat harvest in more than a decade as heavy and persistent rainfall has
washed out fields and destroyed crops.
The Indian
government has imposed limits on wheat stocks that traders can hold amid
rumours that it may abolish or trim the 40% import tax on wheat to help keep
prices low.
The
state-run India Meteorological Department said the country faces below-normal
rainfall in June due to the slow initial progress of this year’s monsoon. It
now estimates that India is most likely to receive less than 92% of the
long-period average rainfall, raising concerns over domestic agricultural
production.
The Russian
government has declared a federal emergency in 10 regions following damage to
crops from May frosts. The Agriculture Ministry said the impact of weather
problems on farm output would be minimised and export commitments would be
fulfilled. Agricultural consultancies IKAR and Sovecon
have both cut their wheat crop forecasts to 81.5 million tonnes and 80.7
million tonnes respectively.
Turkey
announced that it would halt wheat imports from June 21 until at least October
15 to protect farmers from price fluctuations and create a favourable market
for domestic producers. The move removes an important market for Russian
exports. Russian wheat sales to Turkey had been running second to Egypt as of
mid-April, according to the Rusgrain Union.
Ukraine’s
January-May grain exports via the Romanian port of Constanta were reported down
44% year-on-year to 3.5 million tonnes. The fall was also a reflection of
Ukraine shipping out more grain from its port of Odesa using the navigational
channel hugging the western Black Sea coast off Romania and Bulgaria.
Major Egyptian fertiliser and
petrochemical companies, including Abu Qir Fertilisers, Mopco,
Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals and KIMA, said they would halt production due to a
shortage of natural gas. A halt in natural gas supplies from Israel and high
temperatures creating a surge in summer power demand has already led to
widespread blackouts.
Yara International has inaugurated
its 24 MW renewable hydrogen plant at Heroya and
delivered its first fertilizer made from renewable ammonia produced at the
plant.
UK-based Atome
Energy said that it has completed a Front-End Engineering Design study for its
145 MW Villeta green fertiliser project in Paraguay and is on track to commence
construction by the end of 2024. Atome plans to
produce 264,000 tonnes/year of green calcium ammonium nitrate fertiliser.
Mitsu & Co has begun building a
one million short tons/year ammonia plant in Al Ruwais in the UAE that is due
to start up in 2027 supplying Japan and other Asian markets for uses including
fuel and chemical and fertiliser feedstock. The construction of additional
capture and storage systems will allow the production of clean ammonia to
commence in 2030. Partners in the project include Abu Dhabi National Oil
Company, Fertiglobe and South Korea’s GS Energy.
The Brazilian Tree Industry (Iba) expects the country’s forestry sector to invest R$90 billion by 2028, a figure 45% higher than the organisation’s previous official projection. It foresees a structural expansion in the consumption of wood derivatives in the packaging and hygiene products market. Brazil has already become the world’s largest pulp exporter and the second largest producer, behind the US. Investment projects include Chilean companies Arauco and CMPC who have announced plans to install new factories. Asian-owned Bracell is also planning to expand its pulp operations in Brazil. There are also ongoing talks with Indonesian-owned Paper Excellence over the possibility of setting up a new pulp mill in the country.
The
Meteorological Service of Canada expects temperatures over the next three
months will be warmer than normal across most of the country, except along the
coast of British Colombia, adding to the risk of another bad wildfire season.
Canada experienced its worst-ever fire season last year with more than 6,600
blazes burning 15 million hectares, roughly seven times the annual average.
EU imports
of tropical wood and wood furniture totalled 335,000 tonnes in 1Q24, down 4%
quarter-on-quarter and down 22% year-on-year. It was also the lowest quarterly
total recorded this century.
European
softwood production declined by 6.4% in 2023 to 80.894 million cubic metres,
according to the European Organisation of the Sawmilling Industry (EOS), with a
further slight drop of just under 2% expected in 2024. EOS noted that sawmill
capacity increases were significant over the last couple of years but
projections for 2024 indicate that this trend has now stopped.
The US was
reported to have asked the EU to delay its ban on wood, grain and other
commodities linked to deforestation as US exporters struggle to be ready for
the new rules coming in from December 30 requiring proof that supply chains do
not contribute to the destruction of forests.
Finnish
machine and plant manufacturer Valmet will provide a 50-MW wood pellet-fired
heating plant to Swedish energy supplier Goteborg Energi.
The plant is due to become operational at the end of 2026.
Argentinian
cement consumption in the first five months of 2024 slumped 30.5% year-on-year
to 3.52 million tonnes, according to the country’s cement association, AFCP.
The CEO of
Holcim Austria was reported saying that Austria produced approximately 4.4
million tonnes of cement in 2023, down 15% year-on-year. Another double-digit
drop is expected in 2024 due to a significant downturn in construction sectors
including a notable drop in housing permits.
Brazil’s
cement association SNIC reported that domestic cement sales in May decreased 5.3%
year-on-year to 5.27 million tonnes as heavy rains and floods in Rio Grande do
Sul impacted cement demand. In the first five months of 2024, cement sales
totalled 25.14 million tonnes, up 1.1% on the same period last year
The National
Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies have released
plans to cap clinker production capacity in China at 1.8 billion tonnes/year by
the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the
driver to determine which production lines can remain open. China’s cement
industry has had to face rationalisation following the real estate sector
collapse. The China Cement Association
estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023.
The Lemi National Cement Factory is preparing to begin
production in August at its new 6.4 million tonnes/year cement plant some 130
km north of Addis Ababa. The Chinese-backed project will nearly double
Ethiopia’s cement production capacity.
The
Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has forecast that the construction of the
planned new capital city of Nusantara will need 1 million tonnes/year of cement,
the equivalent of 1.5% of current domestic demand of 65.6 million tonnes a
year.
Atlantic
Group has begun building a 500.000 tonnes/year cement plant at Tamatava in Madagascar. The Madagascan Cement Company hopes
to commence operations in the second quarter of 2025.
The
government of Bauchi State has signed a deal with Resident Cement and a local
subsidiary of China-based Sinoma to build a 10
million tonnes/year cement plant in the Gwana District of the state.
The Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics reported that cement and clinker exports rose by 61%
year-on-year in the first eleven months of the current financial year to end
June, totalling 6.18 million tonnes.
A government
economic survey revealed that the capacity utilisation of Pakistan’s cement
industry fell to 54.6% in the first nine months of the current financial year,
the lowest level since data collation began in 2006.
Heidelberg
Materials plans to stop clinker production at its Anorga plant near San
Sebastian and run it as a cement grinding plant instead using clinker produced
at its Bilbao plant.