Leonard Hockley

[Email address]

Dry Cargo

A review of the fundamental demand changes to the global forecast

Monthly Forecasting Report

June 2024


 

Contents

ECONOMIC NEWS. 4

OECD. 4

UN TRADE & DEVELOPMENT. 4

CHINA. 5

FRANCE. 5

GERMANY. 5

ITALY. 5

PANAMA. 5

UNITED KINGDOM.. 5

STEEL. 6

WSA. 6

AUSTRALIA. 6

BELGIUM.. 7

CHINA. 7

GERMANY. 7

GUINEA. 7

HUNGARY. 7

INDIA. 7

JAPAN.. 8

NETHERLANDS. 8

OMAN.. 8

ROMANIA. 8

SAUDI ARABIA. 8

SPAIN.. 9

UKRAINE. 9

UNITED KINGDOM.. 9

USA. 9

POWER COAL. 10

AUSTRALIA. 10

CHINA. 10

GERMANY. 10

INDIA. 10

JAPAN.. 10

SOUTH AFRICA. 11

TURKEY. 11

UYRAINE. 11

USA. 11

ALUMINIUM.. 11

IAI 11

AUSTRALIA. 12

CHINA. 12

EU.. 12

MEXICO.. 12

RUSSIA. 13

AGRIBULK. 13

FAO.. 13

USDA. 13

ARGENTINA. 14

AUSTRALIA. 14

BRAZIL. 14

CHINA. 15

INDIA. 16

RUSSIA. 16

UKRAINE. 16

USA. 16

FERTILISER. 16

BRAZIL. 16

CANADA. 17

FRANCE. 17

KAZAKHSTAN.. 17

QATAR. 17

SPAIN.. 17

SWEDEN.. 18

UNITED KINGDOM.. 18

USA. 18

FOREST PRODUCTS. 18

CANADA. 18

FINLAND. 19

USA. 19

VIET NAM.. 19

CEMENT. 19

ARGENTINA. 19

BANGLADESH. 19

BRAZIL. 19

INDIA. 20

KENYA. 20

SPAIN.. 20

UZBEKISTAN. 20

VIET NAM.. 20

 


 

 

ECONOMIC NEWS

OECD

OECD analysis showed that G20 merchandise exports rebounded in 1Q24 after declining in 2023. Compared to 4Q23, exports measured in current US dollars increased by 1.9% in 1Q24, boosted by strong export growth in China. G20 imports over the same period contracted by 0.2%, partly reflecting decreasing energy prices.

The OECD reported that GDP in the OECD area rose by 0.4% in 1Q24, slightly up on the 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Among G7 countries, growth recovered in the UK and Germany, with GDP increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% in Q1 respectively, following contractions in Q4.

The OECD has released its latest Economic Outlook which sees signs that the global outlook has started to brighten, though growth remains modest. Global economic growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Among major economies, there are notable expansions for India (6.6% growth in both 2024 and 2025) and Indonesia (5.1% growth in 2024 and 5.2% growth in 2025). China’s growth remains positive but is starting to slow (4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025). The US is forecast to grow by 2.6% this year, slowing to 1.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, the Euro area is expected to record modest 0.7% growth in 2024 rising to 1.5% in 2025.

UN TRADE & DEVELOPMENT

Formerly known as UNCTAD, the rebranded organisation’s latest growth forecast for the global economy in 2024 has been raised to 2.7% following better-than-expected performance in some large developed and emerging economies, notably Brazil, India, Russia and the US. World economic growth is expected to increase marginally to 2.8% in 2025.

A new report on global economic fracturing and shifting investment patterns found that foreign direct investment (FDI) struggles to keep pace with trade and GDP. Since 2010, global GDP and trade have grown annually by an average of 4% and 4.2% respectively, even amidst rising trade tensions. By contrast, FDI growth has stagnated near zero. The report highlights the vulnerability of developing economies that are dependent on FDI. It also notes that FDI in manufacturing has seen a significant downturn, with a compound annual growth rate of -12% in the three years following the outbreak of the global pandemic.

CHINA

Chinese industrial output grew by 6.7% year-on-year in April, up from a 4.5% expansion in March signalling a further strengthening in the country’s manufacturing sector. However, weaker retail sales and bleak property data suggested that overall growth momentum remained weak.

FRANCE

An IMF mission to France concluded that the economic recovery is expected to take hold in 2025, while the disinflationary process remains on track. Real GDP growth is projected to rise from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025 as financial conditions ease and investment starts recovering, while households’ purchasing power and consumption improve.

GERMANY

An IMF mission to Germany concluded that the German economy had begun to recover following major shocks. As real wages continue to rise, higher private consumption is expected to drive a modest and gradual recovery in 2024, with real GDP growing by around 0.2% supported also by external demand. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to between 1.0% and 1.5% during 2025-26.  

ITALY

An IMF mission to Italy concluded that the Italian economy recovered well from the sequential pandemic and energy price shocks on the rebound in tourism and the provision of substantial policy support. GDP is projected to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 2025.

PANAMA

The Panama Canal Authority announced an increase in the permitted number of daily transits through the Panama Canal from 24 to 31 vessels following the onset of the country’s rainy season. Daily transits are also due to rise to 32 from the start of June.

UNITED KINGDOM

An IMF mission to the UK concluded that its economy is approaching a soft landing, with a recovery in growth expected in 2024, strengthening in 2025. Real GDP growth is now projected to rise from 0.7% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025 as disinflation buoys real incomes and financial conditions ease.

 

STEEL

WSA

The latest April 2024 crude steel production data from the WSA had global output across 71 reporting countries at 155.7 million tonnes, down 5.0% year-on-year. Chinese output for the month was estimated at 85.9 million tonnes, down 7.2% year-on-year. Outside China, other major producers that recorded year-on-year losses in April included Iran (-12.3%), South Korea (-10.4%), Russia (-5.7%), the US (-2.8%), Japan (-2.5%), and Brazil (-2.1%). There were year-on-year gains in Turkey (+4.5%), India (+3.6%), and the EU (+1.1%). The WSA estimated Chinese crude steel output in the first four months of 2024 at 343.7 million tonnes, down 3.0% year-on-year. Over the same period India’s output totalled 49.5 million tonnes, up 8.5% year-on-year, while EU production totalled 44.4 million tonnes, down 0.6% year-on-year.

AUSTRALIA

Mineral Resources has delivered the inaugural ore shipment from its Onslow Iron project to China Baowu Steel Group. The company said that two MinRes transhipment vessels were loading about 113,000 wet tonnes of iron ore onto a bulk carrier anchored 40 km off the port of Ashburton, Western Australia. The Onslow Iron project, a joint venture between MinRes, Baowu, AMCI and Posco, is targeting a nameplate capacity of 35 million tonnes/year by June 2025.

Private equity group Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners said it would start work on an iron ore mine and a green iron processing facility in Gladstone, Queensland. The mine will produce magnetite ore which will be made into iron using hydrogen derived from clean energy sources. Quinbrook is in discussion with the state-owned utility Stanwell Corporation to source hydrogen from a proposed facility nearby.

Japanese steelmakers raised market dominance concerns with Australian authorities over the possible takeover of Anglo American by BHP. Australia is the largest exporter of coking coal and supplies around 60% of Japan’s imports. BHP and Anglo American are the two largest coking coal producers in Queensland.

BELGIUM

ArcelorMittal, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and other partners have started to operate a pilot carbon dioxide capture unit on the blast furnace at ArcelorMittal’s Gent steel plant. The pilot unit will operate for 1-2 years and, if successful, would progress to full-scale deployment.

CHINA

The China Iron and Steel Association expect China’s domestic iron ore concentrate supply to rise by between 5 million and 10 million tonnes in 2024 compared to last year. CISA also expects global iron ore supply to rise by 50 million tonnes over the same period.

The General Administration of Customs reported that China imported 101.82 million tonnes of iron ore in April, up 4.5% on March when measured on an average daily tonnage basis. The April total was also up 23.6% year-on-year. Iron ore imports in the first four months of this year totalled 411.82 million tonnes, up 7.2% year-on-year. This surge in imports has also seen iron ore stocks at Chinese ports rise by over 30 million tonnes over the same four-month period.

GERMANY

ArcelorMittal has warned that it may not go ahead with plans to decarbonise its German steel operations unless it gets cheap electricity and sufficient supply of green electricity and hydrogen. The company plans to make a final investment decision by mid-2025 at the latest.  

GUINEA

The two consortia developing the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea have broken ground on building the 650 km Trans-Guinean Railway that will link Simandou iron ore deposits to a new port to be built at Matakong, an island near the Sierra Leone border. The rail network will be dual-track and built to carry 10,000-tonne train loads.

HUNGARY

Liberty Steel has signed a contract with CISDI China to finalise the feasibility study on installing a new 1.5 million tonnes/year electric arc furnace at its Hungarian subsidy to replace existing blast furnaces.

INDIA

NMDC, India’s largest iron ore miner, plans to double iron ore production to nearly 100 million tonnes over the next five to six years. Apart from expanding existing mines, the company will look at bidding for and acquisition of new mines.

The Indian Steel Association has raised concerns about a surge in steel imports from China following the US unveiling steep tariff increases on Chinese steel. The ISA has lobbied the Indian government to intervene to curb the flow of imports of Chinese steel products.

India’s Steel Secretary said that steel demand in the country had grown by 13-14% in fiscal 2023/24 and is set to continue to grow by 10% per year in the future given the government’s focus on infrastructure.  

JAPAN

Kobe Steel said that it will consider building a large electric arc furnace to replace one of its two blast furnaces in Kakogawa, to accelerate its decarbonisation drive. This is part of a new three-year management plan to reduce CO2 emissions in steelmaking and power generation operations.

NETHERLANDS

Tata Steel Netherland has awarded engineering contracts to Danieli and Tenova for a direct reduction iron plant, an electric arc furnace and other facilities at its Ijmuiden works. The Dutch government formally decided to back Tata’s plans at the end of April and the project is scheduled for completion in 2030.

OMAN

Kobe Steel has stepped up feasibility studies on a low CO2 iron metallics project in Oman in partnership with Mitsui ahead of starting production in 2027. The project aims to produce five million tonnes/year of directly reduced iron via the MIDREX process using natural gas as a reducing agent which will eventually be replaced by using green hydrogen and carbon capture technology.

ROMANIA

The Romanian prime minister confirmed that a local businessman will invest 300 million euros to resume operations at the 850,000 tonnes/year Otelu Rosu steel mill. The plant and its electric arc furnace have been idle since 2013.

SAUDI ARABIA

Aramco, Baosteel and the Public Investment Fund are reported to have signed an agreement to establish an integrated 1.5 million tonnes/year steel plate manufacturing facility at Ras al-Khair Industrial City. The plant will also be equipped with a natural gas based DRI plant capable of conversion to hydrogen fuel and an electric arc finance.

Bunyan Steel is reported to be planning to start production at its new mill in Al Kharj in October. The plant is being constructed using Chinese investment and aims to have annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes of rebar and 300,000 tonnes of wire rod and other sections, using continuous casting and rolling.

SPAIN

ArcelorMittal has begun construction of a new hybrid electric arc furnace at its Gijon plant. The furnace will have a steel capacity of 1.1 million tonnes/year and is due to commence operations in 1Q26.

UKRAINE

Ukrainian mining company Ferrexpo is reported to have signed a MoU with Germany’s Salzgitter to expand the supply of DRI-grade pellets to support Salzgitter’s decarbonisation programme.

UNITED KINGDOM

Tata Steel UK is reported to have reached a deal with the UK’s National Grid to supply power for a new three million tonnes/year electric arc furnace at its Port Talbot plant from 2027. As we reported last month, Tata has told steel unions it will close its two remaining blast furnaces this year as planned. Blast Furnace No.5 will shut down by the end of June and Blast Furnace No.4 will close by the end of September.

USA

US President Biden has announced steep tariff increases on an array of imported Chinese products that was justified on the grounds that China was stealing US intellectual property. The proposal to raise tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminium products from 7.5% to 25% made on the campaign trail in April will now take effect this year.

US Steel reported that it has started to produce direct reduced iron pellets at its Keetac plant in Minnesota. The plant will have a capacity of around four million tons/year and has the option to produce either DRI-grade pellets for use in electric arc furnaces or iron ore pellets for use in blast furnaces.

Liberty Steel said that it will temporarily pause its wire rod manufacture in Georgetown, South Carolina as production costs exceeded the lowered selling price of wire rod following a surge in imports. Maintenance work will be carried out during the shutdown.

 

POWER COAL

AUSTRALIA

The Australian government has postponed the planned closure of its largest coal-fired power station, the Eraring plant in New South Wales, from 2025 to 2027 in reaction to a looming energy shortfall.

CHINA

The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association said that the country’s hydropower generation recorded a sharp increase from late April which is likely to continue, leading to lower-than-expected demand for coal at power plants. Hydropower in the last third of April was up 42.9% year-on-year and is expected to maintain double-digit growth. Water levels and reserves at the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest hydropower plant, were up 47.8% year-on-year as of mid-May.

GERMANY

Germany’s energy regulator said that the country will need to increase the amount of coal-fired power plants it has on standby to ensure sufficient energy supply during future cold snaps. The regulator projected that the country would need 9.2 gigawatts to cover forecast shortfalls in wind and solar generation over the 2026-27 winter period.

INDIA

The Ministry of Coal reported that India’s domestic coal production jumped to 117 million tonnes in March 2024, up from 108 million tonnes a year earlier. Coal-fired generators boosted their output from 103 to 113 billion kilowatt hours over the same period. In a separate report, the ministry said that the cumulative stock of coal at pitheads and in transit to power plants stood at 147 million tonnes in mid-May, up 25% year-on-year, and was sufficient to ensure energy security.

JAPAN

Japan’s top power producer JERA announced that it plans to invest the equivalent of US $32.4 billion over the coming decade into renewable energy and new fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG. JERA aims to phase out inefficient coal-fired power plants by fiscal 2030 and convert all other coal-fired power generation to ammonia by the 2040s to eliminate coal usage completely.

SOUTH AFRICA

The state-owned power utility Eskom said it plans to operate certain coal-fired power plants beyond their scheduled retirement dates to safeguard the national power grid. The extension is expected to last until at least 2030.

TURKEY

The energy think tank Ember reported that Turkey had overtaken Germany as Europe’s largest producer of coal-fired electricity generating 36 terawatt hours in the first four months of 2024 compared to Germany’s 34.6 terawatt hours over the same period.

UYRAINE

Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia has appealed again to the country’s federal government for another thermal coal shipment to help meet Ukraine’s energy needs having pleaded for help six months earlier. However, Australia’s defence minister responded by saying that it is focused on supplying military aid rather than providing coal.

USA

CSX said that it would return to normal coal export operations from its Curtis Bay coal terminal in Baltimore in late May after work crews cleared part of the deep channel from the wreckage of the Baltimore bridge collapse. Consol Energy has also reported that it has resumed coal shipments from its Marine Terminal in Baltimore.

Officials at the US Bureau of Land Management have released a proposal to block future coal leases on public lands in the Powder River Basin, the country’s largest coal mining region.

Republican attorneys general from 27 US states and industry trade groups have sued the Environmental Protection Agency seeking to block a Biden administration ruling requiring sweeping reductions in emissions from existing coal-fired power stations.

 

ALUMINIUM

IAI

The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production in April rose 3.3% year-on-year to total 5.898 million tonnes, with 59% produced in China. Global production in the first four months of this year totalled 23.76 million tonnes, up 4.2% year-on-year. The IAI also reported that global alumina production in April totalled 11.554 million tonnes, down 0.6% year-on-year. Global alumina production in January to April 2024 totalled 46.734 million tonnes, up 2.7% year-on-year.

AUSTRALIA

Rio Tinto has declared force majeure on third-party contracts for alumina exports from its refineries in Queensland due to restricted gas supplies at its operations following the impact of fires on the Queensland gas pipeline in early March. The pipeline is expected to return to normal usage in the second half of 2024.

CHINA

China imported 14.24 million tonnes of bauxite in April 2024, a record monthly total, up 20% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year according to the General Administration of Customs. Guinea supplied 74% of China’s total bauxite imports in April.

China imported 1.49 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in the first four months of 2024 according to General Administration of Customs, up 86.6% year-on year.

China’s primary aluminium production in April 2024 totalled 3.58 million tonnes according to the National Bureau of Statistics, up 7.2% year-on-year.

EU

The industry association European Aluminium has reiterated its call for sanctions on Russian aluminium metal noting that it is getting harder and harder to justify the continued exclusion of aluminium ingots, slabs and billets from the scope of EU sanctions on Russia.

Trimet Aluminium said that it intends to ramp up aluminium production at its plants in France and Germany to full capacity of 540,000 tonnes/year by mid-2025 following a decrease in electricity prices. The company had been running its plants at less than 50% of capacity over the past two years.

MEXICO

Mexico has removed import tariffs of 35% on primary aluminium and 20% 0n primary alloy from countries with which it does not have a trade agreement due to aluminium shortages for its auto and electronics industries.

RUSSIA

Glencore and Russia’s Rusal have extended their long-term supply contract for the delivery of more than one million tonnes/year of aluminium for at least a year. The deal has been reportedly rolled over into 2025 and early 2026 despite Rusal shipping only a fraction of the agreement’s maximum volumes.

 

AGRIBULK

FAO

The FAO’s World Food Price Index edged higher in April averaging 119.1 points, up 0.3 points from a revised March level. The FAO cereal index rose by nearly 0.3% in April. During the month global wheat export prices stabilised as strong competition among major exporters offset concerns over crop conditions in the EU, Russia and the US. Meanwhile, maize export prices increased reflecting robust import demand, infrastructure damage in Ukraine and concerns about production in Brazil ahead of the main harvest.

In another report, the FAO raised marginally its forecast of world cereal production in 2023/24 to 2.846 billion tonnes, mainly due to revisions to rice production in Myanmar and Pakistan.

USDA

The US Department of Agriculture’s May forecast updates provided the first look at their 2024/25 grain export season forecasts. A comparison of the export trade of the principal commodities (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soyabeans, and soyabean meal) between 2024/25 and the latest revised 2023/24 estimates showed overall trade rising to just over 757 million tonnes, an increase of 6.3 million tonnes or 0.84%. This total is also up 4.8% when compared to the average of the previous five seasons.

Looking at wheat export trade, the USDA expects overall trade to rise modestly in 2024/25 by 0.35 million tonnes from the previous season. Trade gains in million tonnes were shown for Argentina (+2.5), Australia (+2.0), the US (+1.5), Kazakhstan (+1.0), and Canada (+0.5) which were partially offset by trade losses for Ukraine (-3.5), Russia (-1.5) and the EU (-1.0). The USDA’s coarse grain forecasts for 2024/25 were marked down by 5.76 million tonnes on 2023/24 with falls in exports for the main producing nations apart from the US and EU. The USDA was particularly bullish on Chinese imports of maize (see commentary under China). 2024/25 rice trade was marked up modestly on 2023/24. Indian rice exports were increased by 2 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes on the expectation of a record crop, but this was partially offset by modest cuts in exports from other major rice producers.

The USDA expects strong growth in in soybean exports in 2024/25, up by 7.73 million tonnes to just over 180 million tonnes. Compared to 2023/24, soybean export trade was marked up in million tonnes for the US (+3.4), Brazil (+3.0), Argentina (+0.9) and Paraguay (+0.3). As with maize, the USDA has a much more bullish view on Chinese soybean exports than Chinese authorities (see commentary under China). As for soybean meal trade, 2024/25 global exports were increased by 3.5 million tonnes to total 74.5 million tonnes, mainly down to expected higher shipments out of Argentina.

The USDA has also released its latest six-monthly sugar market update. Global sugar export trade in 2023/24 was estimated at 68.235 million tonnes, down 5.4% on the previous November 2023 report. The new 2024/25 global sugar export trade was assessed at 65.825 million tonnes, down 3.5% on the revised 2023/24 estimate. Most sugar producing counties are forecast to export lower volumes in 2024/25, including second and third placed exporters India (-30%) and Thailand (-2%). The prime exception is top exporter Brazil which is forecast to export 28.2 million tonnes of sugar, up 8.7% on the previous season.

 

ARGENTINA

Argentina is on track to start long-awaited maize shipments to China from July according to the country’s grain export chamber. The two countries reached an initial agreement last year to open up maize shipments. The Argentine government also reported that China has authorised two varieties of herbicide tolerant genetically modified maize for import from Argentina.

AUSTRALIA

Strikes have delayed the start of cane processing at Australia’s largest sugar producer, Wilmar Sugar and Renewables. Industrial action is expected to extend into early June ahead of a vote on June 10 which union leaders expect will reject the company’s pay offer.

BRAZIL

Heavy flooding in early May in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sol has hit food storage sites and hampered the movement of grain to ports. The state is a leading producer of soybeans, rice, wheat and meat. The grain exporters association Anec said that access to the port of Rio Grande had been disrupted due to the closure of a local rail line and that road blockages were forcing grain trucks to deviate an extra 400 km increasing freight costs.

Brazil’s trade ministry announced that it has removed tariffs on non-parboiled and polished rice with immediate effect and until the end of December 2024. The move was aimed at preventing acute shortages of the staple food in the wake of deadly floods in Rio Grande do Sul state which normally produces around two-thirds of the country’s rice.

CHINA

The Chinese agriculture ministry has released forecasts for 2024/25 season maize and soybeans that project imports way below USDA provisional forecasts. The ministry estimates maize imports in 2024/25 at 13 million tonnes compared to the 23 million tonnes forecast by the USDA. The USDA estimates 2024/25 soybean imports at 109 million tonnes, 14.4 million tonnes higher than the Chinese agricultural ministry forecast. Interestingly, the USDA expects Chinese grain prices will remain higher than the world market implying that foreign maize will be cheaper than domestic supplies. Tradeviews note that the first estimates of a new crop season tend to be speculative and are often subject to sizeable revisions. We expect these divergences to narrow in coming months.

The Chinese government has approved the safety of gene-edited wheat for the first time as it moves cautiously towards growing genetically modified food crops. China has already approved genetically modified maize and soybean seeds that are higher yielding and resist insects and herbicides. However, the take up has been slow due to health and ecology concerns.

The Chinese agriculture ministry has set targets to drastically reduce the country’s reliance on imports over the next ten years. The government envisions 92% self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from 84% during 2021-23. Over the ten years to 2033 the ministry forecasts a 75% plunge in maize imports to 6.8 million tonnes and a 60% drop in wheat imports to 4.85 million tonnes. Soybean imports are expected to decrease by 21% to 78.7 million tonnes. However, with limited agricultural land and water resources, import reductions appear heavily dependent on productivity growth including genetically modified crops. Many, including the USDA, remain sceptical about whether these targets can be achieved.

INDIA

There is speculation that the Indian government is set to abandon its 40% tax on wheat imports and begin to import wheat after a six-year hiatus to replenish depleted stocks and hold down prices. The president of the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India was reported as saying that there is now a compelling case to remove the wheat import duty to ensure sufficient supplies.

RUSSIA

The three key Russian grain growing regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov all declared a state of emergency in early May over frosts that reportedly caused severe damage to crops and that this will reduce this year’s harvest. The market analysis firm SovEcon reportedly reacted by lowering its 2024 Russian wheat production forecast from 93 to 89.6 million tonnes.

UKRAINE

The agriculture ministry reported that Ukrainian grain exports in the 2023/24 July-June season had reached 45.4 million tonnes by 24 May, exceeding the previous season total of 44.6 million tonnes. The government expects a harvest of 81.3 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds this season with a 2023/24 exportable surplus of about 50 million tonnes. However, the ministry said that the 2024 combined grain and oilseed crop could fall to 74 million tonnes.

USA

The USDA reported in mid-May that US soybean sales for the 2024/25 season starting at the beginning of September were at a 19-year low and almost two-thirds lower than a year ago amid an absence of Chinese buyers.

 

FERTILISER

BRAZIL

Brazilian federal prosecutors have filed a lawsuit to suspend a license given to Canada’s Brazil Potash Corp to commence building Latin America’s largest fertiliser mine in the Amazon rainforest this year. According to the prosecutors, the planned mine overlaps with ancestral lands of the Mura indigenous people and the licensing must be a federal issue to be decided by Brazil’s environmental protection agency and not the state environmental body. As we noted last month, the $2.6 billion project is scheduled to take four years to build and will initially produce 2.4 million tonnes/year of potash to be sold domestically reducing dependency on imports.

Petronas has approved initial measures for the revitalisation and future resumption of operations at its Araucaria Nitrogenados S/A fertiliser plant. The facility has been closed since 2020 and has a production capacity of 720,000 tonnes/year of urea and 425,000 tonnes/year of ammonia.

Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s largest producer of potash, has idled three Brazilian fertiliser blenders indefinitely as part of a reorganisation to weather tough market conditions. The company said it would rely on partners and its other two blenders in Brazil to continue to supply local customers.

CANADA

Worley has been awarded a construction contract for BHP’s Jansen Potash Mine Stage 1 project in Saskatchewan. The mine is expected to start operations in late 2026 with a production capacity of 4.35 million tonnes/year.  

FRANCE

FertigHy has selected the Hauts-de-France region for its first low-carbon fertiliser plant. The production process will use renewable and low carbon electricity to produce hydrogen as a substitute for imported natural gas. Construction of the 500,00 tonnes/year nitrogen-based fertiliser plant will begin in 2027 and is scheduled to be operational in 2030.

KAZAKHSTAN

Eurochem have signed an agreement with China National Chemical Engineering for the design, construction and commissioning of a phosphate mine and chemical complex in Janatas in the Jambyl Region of Kazakhstan. On scheduled completion in 2027, the facility will produce more than one million tonnes/year of mineral fertilisers and associated industrial products.

QATAR

QatarEnergy has signed a 15-year agreement with Koch Fertilizer to supply up to 0.74 million tonnes/year of urea that will be marketed into the US and other international markets. 

SPAIN

As noted above, FertigHy is planning to build its first low-carbon fertiliser plant in France which is expected to be operational by 2030. The company has also stated that it plans to build a second plant in Spain to be commissioned soon after the French facility.

SWEDEN

Cinis Fertiliser has started production of potassium sulphate fertiliser at its 100,000 tonne/year Ornskoldsvik facility in Sweden. All output will be delivered to Dutch fertiliser producer Van Iperen International, with the first shipment expected in 2Q24.

UNITED KINGDOM

Anglo American is to slow the planned development of its Whitby fertiliser mine by at least two years and make substantial cuts to its upcoming investment in the project. The project involves creating a new mine site south of Whitby and a 23-mile tunnel to transport a naturally occurring mineral, polyhalite, to new processing and shipping facilities on Teesside.

USA

The Biden Administration, via the US Department of Agriculture, is investing in domestic fertiliser projects. The USDA is awarding US$83 million for projects in 12 states under the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program. It is providing grants to independent businesses to help them modernise equipment, adopt new technologies, build production plants and more.

 

FOREST PRODUCTS

CANADA

British Colombia’s Forests Ministry said that changes to lumber regulations will reduce the export of raw logs harvested in the province by requiring certain types to undergo manufacturing first. There will be a requirement for mills to fully manufacture lumber from cedar and cypress trees to produce items such as wood veneer, mouldings, shingles, siding, flooring and fencing. The rules will take effect next February and an exemption must be obtained to export wood products that do not meet the specifications with a fee-in-lieu of manufacturing to be paid to the province.

The British Colombia-based Interfor Corporation announced that it plans to reduce its lumber production by around 175 million board feet across all regions of North America between May and September this year in response to persistently weak market conditions.  This represents a reduction of just under 10% from its normal operations.

Canfor has announced that it is permanently closing its sawmill in Bear Lake, British Colombia, shutting a production line at its Northwood Pulp Mill in Prince George, and suspending a planned $200 million state-of-the-art mill investment in Houston, west of Prince George. The company has cited reduced timber harvest levels for the cutbacks.

FINLAND

The Natural Resources Institute Finland reported that prices for industrial roundwood rose across all categories in April. Spruce and pine log prices were slightly lower than last summer’s peaks, while other species surpassed last year’s highs. The ban on Russian and Belarusian wood imports has led to a biomass shortage in the Baltic timber market, resulting in rising prices for logs, pulpwood and other forest raw materials.

USA

UK-based energy group Drax has joined state-funded nonprofit Golden State Natural Resources in planning to build two industrial-scale wood pellet plants in California capable of producing and exporting one million tonnes of pellets per year, primarily for Asian markets. The goal for GSNR is to improve forest resiliency in rural California and reduce the risk of catastrophic forest fires.

VIET NAM

The export value of timber and wood products from Viet Nam is estimated by the General Department of Viet Nam Customs to reach over US$6 billion in the first five months of this year, up 18% year-on-year.

 

CEMENT

ARGENTINA

Argentinian cement consumption in the first four months of 2024 slumped 31.3% year-on-year to 2.75 million tonnes, according to the country’s cement association, AFCP.

BANGLADESH

The Bangladesh Industries Minister forecast that the country’s cement industry’s demand for clinker will reach 25 million tonnes in 2027 due to the ongoing boom in infrastructure development.

BRAZIL

Brazil’s cement association SNIC reported that cement dispatches in April increased 12.3% year-on-year to 5.14 million tonnes. In the first four months of 2024, cement sales totalled 19.39 million tonnes, up a modest 0.4% on the same period last year.

INDIA

JSW Cement plans to build its first cement plant in the north of India at Nagaur, Rajasthan. It will have an initial capacity of 3.3 million tonnes/year, rising to 15 million tonnes/year by 2026. JSW’s cement production capacity is reported to be 21 million tonnes/year, but the company hopes to increase this to 60 million tonnes/year over the next five years.

KENYA

East African Portland Cement has restarted operations at its Athi River cement plant. The plant’s annual cement production capacity was 310,000 tonnes but refurbishment work is expected to boost the company’s output by 1.0 million tonnes/year over the next two years to meet increasing regional demand.

SPAIN

Spain’s cement manufacturers association Oficemen reported that the country’s cement consumption in the first four months of this year totalled 4.65 million tonnes, down 4.5% year-on-year. However, cement consumption in April 2024 totalled 1.324 million tonnes, up 11.5% year-on-year. This was the first positive month after ten months of year-on-year declines.

UZBEKISTAN

A local cement association reported that Uzbekistan will commission 8 million tonnes/year of new cement production capacity by the end of 2024 raising the country’s total capacity to 40.8 million tonnes/year. However, projected cement production in 2024 is 16.7 million tonnes, close to last year’s recorded cement demand.

VIET NAM

The General Statistics Office estimated that Viet Nam’s cement production in the first five months of 2024 totalled 75.7 million tonnes, up 1.9% year-on-year.